Gates echoes drawdown plans of Bush, Petraeus
William H. McMichael - Staff Writer
Posted : Friday Sep 14, 2007 20:08:57 EDT

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Friday that if the current rate of progress in Iraq continues, the next U.S. president will take office with a U.S. troop presence in Iraq that totals about 10 brigade combat teams – roughly 100,000 troops, when support forces are taken into account.

Army Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, told Congress this week that he recommends sending home, beginning in December and ending in mid-July, the five brigades deployed to Iraq this year as part of President Bush’s surge of troops. Those troops were sent there to stabilize Iraq and enable political progress, which officials acknowledge has been painfully slow in coming but is “attainable,” in the words of U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker.

Bush endorsed Petraeus’s recommendation Thursday night in a nationally televised speech.

Petraeus told Congress that he’ll make a fresh assessment in mid-March. He also said additional force reductions “will continue” beyond that point but said his decision will depend on the situation on the ground at that time. During a Friday press conference at the Pentagon, Gates said he sees the reductions continuing.

“My hope is that when he does his assessment in March, that General Petraeus will be able to say that he thinks the pace of the drawdowns can continue at the same rate in the second half of the year as in the first half of the year,” Gates said. He confirmed the rough number of brigades and troops being envisioned 16 months from now in response to a reporter’s question.

Gates defended the pace of the drawdown as Petraeus has proposed, saying the path forward has been carefully considered.

“What ever one may think about how we got to this point in time in Iraq, I believe that getting the next part right and understanding the consequences of getting it wrong is critical for America,” Gates said. ”I believe our military leadership, including a brilliant field commander, is best able and qualified to help us get it right.”

Marine Corps Gen. Peter Pace, appearing with Gates, said his Joint Chiefs of Staff and all of Bush’s other senior military advisers were, after much discussion, “unanimous” that Petraeus’s recommendations were the best path forward. The comment was aimed at countering criticism that the recommendations were influenced by civilian decision-makers and did not represent Petraeus’s independent judgment.

Gates said he is optimistic that while the “challenges in Iraq remain significant . . . progress is being made, however slowly.” He said he believes the Petraeus recommendations “offer a path forward that allows that progress to continue, and a way to avoid the disastrous consequences of an American failure in Iraq.”

Gates acknowledged that new congressional proposals could impact U.S. plans. But while plans that would mandate a change of mission or lock in “dwell” time back home between deployments are “well-intentioned,” they would complicate “our ability to support U.S. combat operations and manage the force effectively.

“The complexity of managing the flow of units, individuals and capabilities to two active combat theaters is enormous and does not lend itself to simplistic – or simple legislative prescriptions,” Gates said. He said the recommendations of Petraeus and Crocker deserve “broad, bipartisan support.”

While it’s too early to tell what might pan out, Gates said he envisions a long-range force – he did not provide a time frame – that would resemble the one recommended in the 2006 Iraq Study Group report. This would be a force that would evolve into support for the Iraqi army in the form of combat service support forces, rapid-reaction forces, special operations forces, intelligence units, search-and-rescue units and force protection units.

Meanwhile, U.S. combat forces would be increasingly moved out of Iraq.

Gates cautioned that “the role of this element would have to be negotiated with the Iraqi government. And so, the precise form, precise size, precise mission would presumably all be a part of that negotiation.” But he said what remains “would be a fraction of the size of today’s deployed force.”

Gates he draws optimism on Iraq’s future from strategic miscalculations on the part of the two major insurgent groups in Iraq.

“You’re always helped if your enemy, your adversary, makes mistakes,” Gates said. “Al-Qaida clearly made a mistake in Anbar.” He was referring to al-Qaida’s campaign of terror against Anbari tribes, which has resulted in those tribes banding together to work with U.S. forces to drive them out.

The same thing may be happening with Jaysh al-Mahdi, the dominant Shi’ite militia in Iraq, he said.

“The violence in Karbala on the religious holiday, the assassination of two Shia governors ... there are some signs that the Shia are perhaps beginning to get the same kind of wake-up call with respect to their extremists that the Sunnis in Anbar did,” Gates said. “Very early in the process. And who knows what will happen. But it’s those kinds of things that I think they’re looking at.”

Ellie