Is Barry Bonds Baseball's Greatest Slugger?

[thedrifter]

August 06, 2007
Is Barry Bonds Baseball's Greatest Slugger?
By Richard Baehr

Sometime in the next few days, Barry Bonds will become the all-time home run leader in major league baseball history, surpassing Henry Aaron. He already holds the single season home run record of 73. The Giants slugger has won 7 MVP awards, a major league record. He has the 5th highest career slugging percentage in baseball history, and the 6th highest career on base percentage. For the combination of the two, the SLOB or OPS, Bonds rank 4th for his career. Bonds has the 3rd lowest number of at bats per home run in baseball history.

As for single season records, Bonds stands out even more: Bonds has the two highest single season on base percentages ever recorded, 3 of the top 5 and 4 of the top 9. Bonds has the highest single season slugging percentage ever recorded, 3 of the top 5, and 4 of the top 12. As for the single season SLOB or OPS (slugging percentage + on base percentage), Bonds has the highest single season figure, 3 of the top 4, and 4 of the top 8. In 2001, when he hit 73 homers, Bond recorded the lowest number of at bats to home runs in any single season in baseball history.

So is Barry Bonds baseballs' greatest hitter? Is he the greatest slugger in baseball history?

The answer to both questions is a resounding no. And it is a no without any need for asterisks or "yes, but..." parentheticals. There is ample room for skepticism about Bonds' place in history.

There is no other player among the baseball greats whose career took a sudden and dramatic turn for the better at age 35 and over. All of the single season records highlighted above occurred from 2001 to 2004 when Bonds was between 36 to 40 years old. During those 4 years, Bond put up numbers never before matched in baseball history. A career .290 hitter, Bonds batted .328, .370, .341, and .362. A hitter whose highest single season slugging percentage had been .688 recorded the following slugging percentages: .863, .799, .749, and .812. Bonds' on base percentage, never before higher than .461, rose to these season marks: .515, .582, .529, and .609. As for the OPS or SLOB, Bonds' single season high had been 1.135 before 2001. His figures for the four seasons were :1.378, 1.381, 1.278 and 1.421.

Bonds, the career leader in bases on balls, received 755 walks in these 4 seasons, 284 of them intentional. In 2004, Bonds walked 232 times, 120 of them intentional. No player has ever been avoided at the plate this frequently in a season. Of course, when a hitter has a slugging percentage of about .800 for four seasons, pitching around that batter makes sense.

Throwing out the four incredible seasons from 2001 to 2004, Bonds has career numbers guaranteeing admission to the Hall of Fame. In addition to his batting numbers, he won 8 Golden Glove Awards in the period 1990-1998. But the skepticism about whether the numbers he posted in the period 2001 to 2004 may have been chemically enhanced now means that an even stronger career stat chart may not guarantee admission to the Hall. The evidence for this is the small number of votes for Mark McGwire on his first appearance on the Hall of Fame ballot this year. McGwire hit 70 homers one year and 66 in another, the 2nd and 3rd highest single season totals (tied with Sammy Sosa for 3rd). He hit 586 career homers and has by far the lowest career ratio of at bats to home runs at 10.61. McGwire would have been a lock first ballot inductee except for concern about steroid use. McGwire's numbers arguably make him one of the greatest, if not the greatest slugger in baseball history (I said arguably, which can mean as it does here, that the argument is weak).

But as I said earlier, one does not have to question Bonds' 4 greatest seasons to conclude that he is not baseball's greatest hitter, nor its greatest slugger. Baseball is a sport that is highly susceptible to statistical analysis. Bill James has created many methodologies to judge players from one decade in comparison to those of another, to evaluate the contribution good fielding makes to a team, to compare the value of pitchers to hitters in their value to a team, to measure ballpark effects. My analysis here is less esoteric, sticking to hitting, making no adjustments to the numbers for playing in a particular era.

While the batting numbers for Bonds for the seasons 2001 to 2004 were probably the best 4 single seasons any player has ever put up (Babe Ruth is close behind), over an entire career, the Babe and Ted Williams easily pass Bonds. Ruth hit.342 for his career, Williams .344. Bonds career batting average is .298. Williams is the all time on base percentage leader at .482. Ruth is second at .474, Bonds 6th at .444. Ruth is way ahead in the career slugging percentage race at .690. Williams is second at .634, Bonds 5th at .609. The OPL or SLOB has a similar career leader board: Ruth first at 1.1638, Williams second at 1.115, Bonds is 4th at 1.0515.

A pretty good case can be made that Bonds ranks no higher than 4th on the hitting or slugging chart. Lou Gehrig, whose career and life were cut short by illness, is third all-time on the OPL/SLOB list at 1.0798, third in slugging at .632, and 5th in the on base percentage at .447. In other words, he is ahead of Bonds in all three areas, as are Williams and Ruth. Gehrig also has a much higher career batting average than Bonds.

Though Bonds will soon own the career home run record (younger players such as Alex Rodriguez or Albert Pujols could pass him in years to come), only once did Bonds hit as many as 50 home runs in a year, and only twice led the league in homers. Aaron never hit 50 in a season. Ruth hit 50 or more 4 times (in slightly shorter 154 game seasons of course), and led the league in home runs 12 times.

It is pure speculation at this point how Bonds' record will be judged in years to come. But even giving him the benefit of the doubt, he ranks as one of the greatest, but not the greatest hitter or slugger in baseball history. And if the later years' performance is tainted, he does not rank in the top ten.

I will be at AT&T Park in San Francisco tonight to see Bonds go for the record. Willie Mays will also be there. He is Bonds' godfather. Willie Mays has a statue and a street named after him near the ballpark. The Say Hey kid, now 76, was my hero when I was growing up in the Bronx. Was Mays the greatest? Probably not. Babe Ruth was a Hall of Fame quality pitcher, as well as the game's greatest hitter. Mays could do it all -- hit for average, hit with power, run the bases, catch the ball, and throw the ball (and the runner out). And he did it with grace, and warmth, and a smile on his face.

Whatever Bonds' achievements, in light of the current steroid speculation and how he has carried himself for most of his career, no one will ever refer to him as the "natural". But that sobriquet fit Willie Mays. In my book, Mays' record, 660 career homers, over 3,000 hits, a .302 career batting average, and the best fielding center fielder, make him the 2nd best overall.

Ellie

[thedrifter]

GARY PETERSON: TIMES COLUMNIST
Long, strange trip to No. 755
Contra Costa Times
Contra Costa Times
Article Launched:08/06/2007 02:58:35 AM PDT

SAN DIEGO -- It's about four hours after his 755th career home run has made a rich man of a La Jolla fan, and Barry Bonds is thinking out loud that there's one way the night could have been better.

He is sitting behind a table, facing a room full of notepads, tape recorders and camera lenses. To his right are two of his three children -- son Nikolai and daughter Aisha. His third child, daughter Shakira, has been out of the country. It would have been nice, Bonds says, if she could have been here, too. Maybe, he wishes out loud, she can be in San Francisco this week.

Moments later, as Bonds is listening to a reporter ask a question, Nikolai taps his father on the shoulder and hands him a phone. Bonds flashes his son the international parental NOT NOW look. Nikolai insists. Bonds takes the phone and puts it to his ear.

"Hello?" he says. "Hi Shakira." Pause. "Well, I'm in a press conference right now."

This, of course, was effectively how Bonds' road trip through Southern California ended. It began on a muggy, smoggy night in Los Angeles. Here are a few more postcards from the Road to History.

The visiting locker room in Dodger Stadium is like the inside of a submarine. It is long, narrow and lacking in creature comforts. Three hours before Tuesday's Giants-Dodgers game, the small room is clogged with reporters.

How crowded is it? So crowded that Ryan Klesko barely has room to fly his remote-controlled helicopter.

Now it's Wednesday afternoon, and there's one Giants player who isn't put off by the loitering horde of media. Reliever Steve Kline takes the opportunity to regale a group of writers with a series of hilarious baseball stories that you would never consider repeating in mixed company.

Kline is left-handed to the core, a gifted storyteller who could have a future in stand-up comedy -- assuming he can find material suitable for use outside a baseball locker room.

A somewhat less gifted public speaker, commissioner Bud Selig, has scheduled a press conference for later in the afternoon. As reporters gather in an area just off the upper parking lot at Dodger Stadium, a dark blue SUV with flashing red lights comes roaring up to the entry gate. It screeches to a stop in true Starsky-and-Hutch fashion, followed by a sleek red sedan carrying -- you guessed it -- the most secure commissioner in all of sports.

It's Thursday, L.A.'s last chance to witness history. As usual, Dodger fans arrive late and leave early. But for about three innings between the coming and the going, the stadium is full, the sky grows dark, and the stands twinkle with camera flashes for the entirety of a Bonds at-bat.

The scene shifts to San Diego for Friday's game. Another Giant unfazed by all the attention is shortstop Omar Vizquel. A pleasant, chatty sort, Vizquel can converse on any number of subjects. At this very moment he is talking with two female reporters about clothes shopping, and more than holding his own.

Now it's late in Friday's game. Bonds has been pulled. For someone whose day began with an early wake-up call in Los Angeles, whose mission on this trip is to report on Bonds, Bonds and only Bonds and whose work for the evening is done, it's a chance to bug out early, even with the game still in progress.

Unfortunately, some ticket-buyers have the same idea. In fact, it's slow going getting out of the parking garage. Finally, traffic comes to a complete stop. It is at this point, with the Padres threatening to tie the game inside the nearby stadium, that a member of their radio team says, "And I'll tell you another thing, nobody's leaving."

Now it's Saturday night, and the national anthem is being sung in a military town. And yet one leather-lunged fan out in right field takes advantage of a brief pause in the song to yell: "Barry (stinks)!"

Sunday's game is mostly without drama for the Bonds-arazzi. The big man isn't playing. The Giants are in last place. But the day is brightened when Tony Gwynn, one of the classiest men ever to pull on a sanitary sock, shows up in the press box. Gwynn, of course, is exactly one week removed from his induction into baseball's Hall of Fame. "And," he says, "I still can't put it into words."

Between innings, the Marine Corps hymn comes booming out of the stadium loudspeakers. Instantly, two sections of Marines seated in the upper deck rise to attention. Almost as instantly, fans throughout the stadium jump to their feet and begin cheering and clapping to the music.

This goes on for almost a minute. The goose bumps last slightly longer.

Contact Gary Peterson at gpeterson@cctimes.com.



Ellie

[marinepooly1361]

Even though he has probably been using an incredible amount of steroids over the last 5-7 years, he is still good at hitting the ball none the less. It takes more than big muscles to hit ball a mile. Timing, stance and reading the ball all comes into play. I admire him for that, but I dont like the fact that he's going to get away with using steroids.

[ggyoung]

No

[marinepooly1361]

The Drifter's Place A place for the Old Salts to hang their cover and deploy some wisdom for the up and comers. This forum is dedicated to Roger Alfano, Leatherneck's Top Moderator.

If this forum is for sharing wisdom with "up and comers"

then why did you delete my comment? Aren't Poolees up and coming?

[Osotogary]

Nope...and I'm from San Francisco originally. Saw Harmon Killebrew, Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Willie Mays, Henry Aaron to name a few. I don't feel tainted when I speak their names.

[Kegler300]

[gwladgarwr]

The Drifter's Place A place for the Old Salts to hang their cover and deploy some wisdom for the up and comers. This forum is dedicated to Roger Alfano, Leatherneck's Top Moderator.

If this forum is for sharing wisdom with "up and comers"

then why did you delete my comment? Aren't Poolees up and coming?

...you are unable to read.

You are not a Marine - you are a poolee and not even a recruit.

You may post in the poolees' section. The rest of this forum is reserved for Marines. Pay attention and do not mouth off - you have not earned the right to be called Marine, ergo, you do not rate giving lip, understood?

Sgt gw

[FistFu68]

YOU LISTEN TOO MS.ELLIE AND YELLOWWING!AND OTHER MARINES WHEN THEY TELL YOU SOMETHING YOUNG MAN,BECAUSE IT'S GONNA BE 3 STRIKES AND YOU'R YOUNG AZZ-IS GONNA BE OUT???(NO PUN INTENDED)

[jetdawgg]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/a/aaronha01.shtml

Barry needs to hang it up. Aaron is the better by far.

Babe Ruth (NYY/BRS) the greatest player in the 'Dead Ball Era'.

Henry Aaron(MB/AtlB/MBr) the greatest player in the "Live Ball Era" and had to face racial hatred and death threats during his record setting run

Barry Bonds hit the most HR's in the 'Controversial Era' jury still out on steriod use

[Cody89]

barry is one of the greatest if he took anything it dosen't help ur eyes he earns more walks then anybody whithout a lot of k's so he is one of the greatest slugger

[sgt tony]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/a/aaronha01.shtml

Barry needs to hang it up. Aaron is the better by far.

Babe Ruth (NYY/BRS) the greatest player in the 'Dead Ball Era'.

Henry Aaron(MB/AtlB/MBr) the greatest player in the "Live Ball Era" and had to face racial hatred and death threats during his record setting run

Barry Bonds hit the most HR's in the 'Controversial Era' jury still out on steriod use

Yes and steriods has made the stanards of the sports to the point of nothing but drug users, They un-like the GREATS doing it naturaly and not with the help of drugs

[DROD]

Barry Bonds has no integrity. Therefore he is a cheater! Everything he has done is tainted.

[OLE SARG]

bonds is the reason I lost interest in baseball!!!!!! Could care less if he breaks the HR record as I feel it means nothing as he had to drug himself to do it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SEMPER FI,

[Gary Hall]

No. Gary Hall, Tyler, TX