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TeufelHunden
07-03-02, 12:16 PM
The oil-driven disaster would probably come only if a wider war involving Israel prompts an Arab embargo, something angry populations might demand and quaking Gulf governments would accede to. Six months of oil at $50 a barrel would stick the U.S. economy with the equivalent of a huge tax increase. As Mark Zandi, chief economist at economy.com, points out, a mere $10 increase in the price of oil shaves a full percentage point off of GDP. Another oil shock may not be likely, but to dismiss it out of hand would not, as President Bush's father used to say, be prudent. For that and other reasons George W. Bush needs to do as his father did in 1991 and make sure the Israelis stay out of it when Saddam's remaining Scuds take flight. But in this environment, and with Ariel Sharon as Prime Minister, will they?

We don't mean to spoil your summer vacation with these doom-laden scenarios. There are, make no mistake, people who believe the end of Saddam Hussein will come with relative ease. They argue that once the U.S. makes it clear that it will buttress local forces like the Kurds in northern Iraq with our own contingent of troops--and that this time it really is for keeps--even his most loyal officers will know the game's over, and most won't even fight. Then, says Zaab Sethna of the Iraqi National Congress, "the Iraqi people will be kissing your GIs in the street."

Well, let's hope so. But don't bet on that either. For now, know at least that some sort of conflict is coming. There is no way the Bush Administration, given its rhetoric to date, can back down from a confrontation with Saddam. The 800-pound gorilla has begun to stir. It wouldn't be wise to take your eye off it.