From Pendleton to Afghanistan?

From Pendleton to Afghanistan? -- Gates to decide whether to send 3,200 Marines by spring


By: MARK WALKER - Staff Writer

If Taliban fighters launch a spring offensive as Pentagon planners expect, they may be met on the battlefield by a large contingent of Camp Pendleton Marines.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates is now considering a proposal from the Joint Chiefs of Staff to send 3,200 Marines to Afghanistan to help quell what they anticipate will be an uprising when the snow melts.

If he gives the go-ahead, it would represent the first large-scale assignment in Marine Corps forces in Afghanistan since the invasion of that country in 2001.

Marine Corps officials would not confirm Friday where those troops would specifically come from, but several sources said the force was likely to be a combined 2,200-member Marine Expeditionary Unit and elements of a battalion.

Two expeditionary units based at Camp Pendleton are already scheduled to deploy later this year, raising the possibility that if Gates gives the go-ahead those Aghanistan-bound troops would come from North County bases.

The additional U.S. troops would join about 40,000 coalition troops in Afghanistan, including 26,000 Americans, mostly U.S. Army soldiers. A small number of Marine advisers and a special operations unit are there now.

On Thursday, Gates said during a Pentagon press briefing that he has yet to reach a decision on the request from Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Mullen's request came after NATO partners rebuffed requests to send more of their forces to Afghanistan.

"I have asked a number of questions that I expect to be answered before I make up my mind," Gates said. "I am concerned about relieving the pressure on our allies to fulfill their commitments. I am concerned about the implications for the force, and I also am very concerned that we continue to be successful in Afghanistan keeping the Taliban 'on their back foot.' "

'Spring fighting season'
Last fall, Gates rejected a proposal from Marine Corps Commandant James Conway to shift his troops from Iraq to Afghanistan.

Conway said in October that he believed the mission in Afghanistan was better suited to Marines than continuing to conduct civil affairs and security support in Iraq's Anbar province, where Marines have been stationed since the March 2003 invasion.

John Pike, a military expert and founder of the Washington think tank GlobalSecurity.org, said Friday that he does not believe the Marines would stay in Afghanistan for a prolonged period.

"Sending the Marines there now is a good way to get ready for the spring fighting season," Pike said during a telephone interview. "But it seems to me there is resistance to the notion of what the Marines call 'sustained operations ashore.' That takes away from the expeditionary flavor the Marines like."

He also said he does not believe the U.S. can estimate how long it will have forces in Afghanistan.

"We're never going to get out of there," Pike said. "We are not going to allow al-Qaida to develop a liberated zone of any appreciable dimension and that means we are going to have to stay there and continually prune them back."

Troops on their way
Last week, Camp Pendleton's I Marine Expeditionary Force was formally activated to resume the lead role for security in Anbar, a job it has taken on three times since the invasion of Iraq.

The man who will lead those Marines, Gen. James Kelly, said Wednesday that his goal was to continue to train Iraqi army and police forces so he and his troops would "work ourselves out of a job."

More than 11,000 locally based Marines and sailors are being sent to Iraq.

One day after Kelly's comments, the man he is replacing, Marine Maj. Gen. Walter Gaskin, said the U.S. would hand over control of Anbar to the Iraqis in March. The hand-over would make Anbar the 10th of 18 Iraqi provinces that coalition forces have been able to return to local control.

Kelly and other senior Marines say that shift does not mean that Anbar is no longer a dangerous place and that U.S. troops don't need to remain there to support Iraqi forces.

There are now more than 20,000 Iraqi army troops in Anbar, as well as local police and "concerned local citizen" militias, responding to attacks by insurgents and al-Qaida fighters.

Insurgent activity, however, has waned substantially in the last 12 months, with attacks by roadside bombs, for example, falling from an average of 70 a day to a handful.

The military has reported no Marine deaths in Anbar since Oct. 8.

The ongoing mission
Local Marine Corps officials last week said there was a chance that some local units could be sent home before their latest 12-month Iraq assignment is up.

Whether an early homecoming is possible will depend, they said, on continued stability in Anbar and the needs of commanders on the ground, including the overall U.S. commander, Army Gen. David Petraeus.

In March, Petraeus is scheduled to provide a formal update to the Bush administration and Congress on the situation in Iraq and the result of the escalation of troops ordered by the president last year.

A senior Marine official said Friday that he believes the I Marine Expeditionary Force still has plenty to do in Anbar.

"You are watching an enemy defeat in the making, but the job isn't done yet although the Marines' security role is diminishing," said the senior Marine official who spoke to the North County Times on condition of anonymity. "That will be followed by a diminished governance and economic support role for our troops," the official said.

"A lot of work has been done, but there remains some work that we need to do in order to get the Iraqis up on their feet."

Part of that work, the source said, includes ensuring the newfound calm in Anbar is maintained and doing more work to stabilize that region's political and economic climate.

"The security now in place for the population allows us to do those things that will make the province resistant to enemy efforts to regain the initiative," the official said.

Pike said the success in Anbar equates to raw power.

"As soon as the sheiks decided the Marines were the strongest tribe, they said that we need to side with them. That's why Anbar went from a big mess to being nicely in hand," he said.

In Iraq for years to come?
Pike agreed with Marine Corps officials that the impending transfer of Anbar to Iraqi control does not mean that American troops will be able to leave in substantial numbers any time soon. There are approximately 25,000 Marines and 10,000 U.S. Army troops there now.

"The transfer cannot be equated to no more Americans," Pike said. "The Iraqis may be assuming frontline responsibility, but they are dependent on us and we are going to be stuck providing their supplies for quite some time to come."

National security specialist Michael O'Hanlon, at Washington's Brookings Institution, a nonprofit public policy organization, said the Marines could be called upon to do more elsewhere in the country.

"The Marines are going to have to maintain some presence in Iraq," he said during a telephone interview on Friday. "As they are able to draw down forces in Anbar, they could be asked to send fresh forces to other places in Iraq."

O'Hanlon also said that the political and economic environment in Iraq is only marginally better than this time last year. U.S. troop reductions from the current 160,000 to below the pre-surge level of about 130,000 may be difficult, he warned.

"Given Iraq's fragile sectarian relations and weak institutions, the likelihood is that further American troop reductions will have to be slow and careful if the progress is to continue."

Material from The Associated Press was used in this report. Contact staff writer Mark Walker at (760) 740-3529 or mlwalker@nctimes.com.

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