thedrifter
09-04-08, 06:24 AM
The Anwar Handover: A Self-Defeating Exercise
MIDDLE EAST TIMES
Published: September 04, 2008
Handing Anwar province over to the Iraqi army may work, more or less, in the short-term, but in the long-term, it is a sure recipe for a renewed Shiite-Sunni civil war in Iraq.
The handover is universally welcomed in the United States and it serves well the political purposes of President George W. Bush, his would-be successor Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and their challenger, Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.
For Bush, of course, the handover appears to confirm the success of his "surge" policy 2007. McCain welcomes the transfer for the same reason.
But the handover is welcome news for Obama as well, because it strengthens his argument that all 15-16 combat brigades of the U.S. Army and Marines can be fully pulled out of Iraq by within by the middle of 2010.
However, the very significant improvement in security in Anwar was due to one policy above all others: The U.S. armed forces under Gen. David Petraeus -- the very first senior commander the United States sent to Iraq who knew the first thing about counter-insurgency warfare and tactics -- have bought peace in Anwar and neighboring Diyala province by "subsidizing," or bringing, the local sheikhs there to the tune of $3 billion a month.
This policy has consistently gone hand in hand with giving the local Sunni tribal leaders much more power and autonomy to run their own affairs than they ever enjoyed either under the dictatorship of late President Saddam Hussein, or under the current, democratically elected by Shiite-dominated government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in Baghdad.
When the U.S. troops withdraw, the bribes or "subsidies" will no doubt continue. It should be telling that the only counter-insurgency policy that the United States ever attempted with anything approaching success in Central Iraq should have nothing to do with the lethal high-tech wonder weapons of the Pentagon's beloved arsenal but should be copied directly from the political instruction manual of the British Empire across the Middle East and South Asia 100 years ago.
However, Maliki's central government in Baghdad has shown not the slightest indication or desire to offer the long-dominant Sunni Arabs of central Iraq autonomy to run their own affairs, even though Sunni Iraq is the only part of the country with no oil reserves worth the name.
On the contrary, the handover of responsibility for Anwar to the Maliki government and its Shiite-run army removes the U.S. military buffer separating Sunni from Shiite and opens the way for a new era in which the Baghdad-backed Shiite army -- which is in large part run by the old Shiite Badr Brigades anyway -- will systematically strip the Sunnis of the self-government they won from Petraeus.
The more the Shiites in Baghdad push against the Sunnis, the more Saudi Arabia across the border is going to step up its support of them.
The much heralded U.S. pullback from Anwar, therefore, is likely to soon prove self-defeating and it will create far more problems than it solves.
Ellie
MIDDLE EAST TIMES
Published: September 04, 2008
Handing Anwar province over to the Iraqi army may work, more or less, in the short-term, but in the long-term, it is a sure recipe for a renewed Shiite-Sunni civil war in Iraq.
The handover is universally welcomed in the United States and it serves well the political purposes of President George W. Bush, his would-be successor Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and their challenger, Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.
For Bush, of course, the handover appears to confirm the success of his "surge" policy 2007. McCain welcomes the transfer for the same reason.
But the handover is welcome news for Obama as well, because it strengthens his argument that all 15-16 combat brigades of the U.S. Army and Marines can be fully pulled out of Iraq by within by the middle of 2010.
However, the very significant improvement in security in Anwar was due to one policy above all others: The U.S. armed forces under Gen. David Petraeus -- the very first senior commander the United States sent to Iraq who knew the first thing about counter-insurgency warfare and tactics -- have bought peace in Anwar and neighboring Diyala province by "subsidizing," or bringing, the local sheikhs there to the tune of $3 billion a month.
This policy has consistently gone hand in hand with giving the local Sunni tribal leaders much more power and autonomy to run their own affairs than they ever enjoyed either under the dictatorship of late President Saddam Hussein, or under the current, democratically elected by Shiite-dominated government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in Baghdad.
When the U.S. troops withdraw, the bribes or "subsidies" will no doubt continue. It should be telling that the only counter-insurgency policy that the United States ever attempted with anything approaching success in Central Iraq should have nothing to do with the lethal high-tech wonder weapons of the Pentagon's beloved arsenal but should be copied directly from the political instruction manual of the British Empire across the Middle East and South Asia 100 years ago.
However, Maliki's central government in Baghdad has shown not the slightest indication or desire to offer the long-dominant Sunni Arabs of central Iraq autonomy to run their own affairs, even though Sunni Iraq is the only part of the country with no oil reserves worth the name.
On the contrary, the handover of responsibility for Anwar to the Maliki government and its Shiite-run army removes the U.S. military buffer separating Sunni from Shiite and opens the way for a new era in which the Baghdad-backed Shiite army -- which is in large part run by the old Shiite Badr Brigades anyway -- will systematically strip the Sunnis of the self-government they won from Petraeus.
The more the Shiites in Baghdad push against the Sunnis, the more Saudi Arabia across the border is going to step up its support of them.
The much heralded U.S. pullback from Anwar, therefore, is likely to soon prove self-defeating and it will create far more problems than it solves.
Ellie