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thedrifter
12-27-07, 09:04 AM
U.S. gamble on sheiks is paying off — so far

By Jim Michaels, USA TODAY

FALLUJAH, Iraq — Support from tribal sheiks helped turn the tide against al-Qaeda in Iraq's Anbar province, the Sunni-dominated region that once was an insurgent stronghold. Now the U.S. military is repaying the favor.

Tribal leaders are getting construction and other lucrative contracts from the U.S. military. And Marines are encouraging tribal leaders to form a federation to try to set aside their longtime differences and give the tribes a greater say in newly formed local governments.

The situation reflects how Iraq's Sunni tribes — some of which were brutally suppressed by Saddam Hussein — are enjoying a resurgence, largely because their willingness to reject the radical Sunnis in al-Qaeda has won them protection from U.S. forces. The U.S. military says working with influential sheiks is key to establishing a lasting peace in Anbar province.

The strategy has been so successful that versions of the "Anbar model" are being applied elsewhere in Iraq, including Baghdad and Diyala province. When it comes to securing Iraq, "everything starts with the tribes," Marine Maj. Gen. John Allen says.

"The sheiks are more powerful than anytime in the past" thanks to their alliance with the U.S. military, says Sheik Khalid Ali Jassim, a tribal leader, who spoke at his compound near the banks of the Euphrates River outside Fallujah. "If Marines help us, we can do everything and keep security as it is."

The policy of backing sheiks, however, is raising concerns that the U.S. military is empowering historically combative groups that eventually could turn on one another and Iraq's Shiite-dominated government.

"Some of the U.S. military have so focused on this, they may have gone a little overboard," says Phebe Marr, author of The Modern History of Iraq. "We're empowering a very traditional and, presumably, not very modern form of government."

Tribal leaders generally are not elected and sometimes rule based on ancient views of justice that include blood debts and vengeance. Some remain suspicious of Iraq's central government.

There is little doubt that cooperation from Anbar's powerful tribal sheiks fostered one of the most dramatic turnarounds in Iraq this year. When tribal sheiks turned against al-Qaeda in Anbar, many of the province's 1.3 million residents followed, cutting militants off from essential local support. Violence declined, and daily life improved.

Anbar, once one of Iraq's most violent provinces, is now one of the country's quietest. Attacks and other incidents, such as the discovery of roadside bombs and weapons caches, have declined to about 50 per week from 470 a week last year, the Marine command here reports. In Ramadi, the province's capital, attacks have dropped to about one per week, compared with 100 a week during the same period last year.

The sheiks were key to the turnaround, U.S. commanders say. "Everywhere we have seen failure … in Iraq it has generally been because we dismissed the role of the tribes and the sheiks," Allen says.

The Marine headquarters, which commands Army and Marine Corps units throughout Anbar province, expects to reduce the number of U.S. combat battalions in the province from 11 there now to six in the spring. That would drop the number of U.S. Marines and soldiers in Anbar province from 34,000 to a little more than 20,000.

'We're winning'

The drawdown in U.S. forces comes as Iraqi security forces have grown. The number of Iraqi police and army in Anbar province has more than doubled over the past year to more than 50,000.

"I have no doubt in my mind we're winning," says Brig. Gen. Mark Gurganus, an assistant commander of 2nd Marine Division. "I won't say we won."

Anbar province, which is about the size of North Carolina and has a mostly Sunni population, has long been a tribal stronghold.

The Euphrates River, dotted with villages, runs through the province, from the Syrian border to Baghdad. For centuries it was a smuggling route controlled by tribes. Al-Qaeda used the chain of villages along the river to smuggle foreign fighters into Baghdad from Syria.

The U.S. military estimates there are about 50 main tribes and countless smaller clans, subclans and families in Anbar province. Most of the tribes predate Islam. (Tribes are groups of people, sometimes in the tens of thousands, who are connected through kinship.)

Iraq's insurgency was born here, gaining popularity among the province's large population of former members of Saddam Hussein's intelligence services and military.

Al-Qaeda brought money and played on Sunnis' fear of the United States and a Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad, says Marine Maj. Gen. Walter Gaskin, commander of Multi-National Force-West.

As al-Qaeda grew stronger, sheiks increasingly were pressured by restive tribal members who sympathized with al-Qaeda or were paid to attack U.S. troops.

Tribal leaders, most of whom don't share al-Qaeda's radical brand of Islam, didn't support the terrorist group. But they lacked the strength to defeat them.

However, al-Qaeda soon overplayed its hand by trying to impose a strict interpretation of Islam, brutalizing the sheiks and their followers, and trying to take over sheiks' businesses to fund the insurgency, Gaskin says.

The sheiks began to fight back.

Tribes first confronted al-Qaeda in 2005 in Qaim, a remote town on the Syrian border. Al-Qaeda turned back the tribal uprising.

But then, last year, a tribal group headed by Sheik Abdul-Sattar Abu Risha in Ramadi formed an alliance to battle al-Qaeda militants.

"Generally this initial fight was over economics," Gaskin says, a reaction to al-Qaeda's seizure of the tribal businesses.

The sheiks banded together — and sought American help. The results were immediate. Former insurgents turned on al-Qaeda. The ranks of police and the army in Anbar province swelled.

Abu Risha was assassinated in September, less than two weeks after meeting with President Bush. His brother, Ahmed, has taken over the alliance.

For years, U.S. forces had been making contacts among tribal leaders but struggled to separate authentic sheiks — those with influence and followers — from poseurs.

"Part of the difficulty we had initially here was sorting out what tribal leaders were the ones we should be talking to," Allen says.

The Ramadi sheiks agreed to accept U.S. help.

"We should've gone to the sheiks a long time ago," says Marine 2nd Lt. Brian Adams, 24, of Allen, Texas. "Al-Qaeda got to them first."

Learning how to 'man kiss'

Today, the U.S. military wants to help build a stable government in Anbar that blends tribal tradition and modern forms of government.

"For time immemorial in Iraq, the role of the sheiks and the tribes has been central to the governance of this country," Allen says. "For Iraq to be a powerful state someday again and to be a really credible democratic state, it simply can't dismiss the sheiks."

Tribal sheiks are sometimes part of the traditional government, and other times rival it. They have seats on most of the city councils and the provincial council. They are tied in with local police because sheiks helped raise the forces in most police districts. Many tribes run construction and trucking businesses and benefit from U.S. and Iraqi government reconstruction projects.

The contracts with U.S. forces allow sheiks to hand out jobs, and thus maintain power.

"The sheiks come together and say, 'These are the projects we want to do,' " says Marine Capt. Clark Mitchell, 33, whose infantry company has its headquarters in a dusty compound amid the cultivated fields and date groves outside Fallujah. Contracts generally go to the lowest bidder, but, Mitchell says, "you see a name and say, 'That's sheik so-and-so's brother.' "

It's not hard to find people complaining of cronyism, but it can be difficult to distinguish between genuine support for competition and tribal squabbling over contracts. "The only people who are benefiting now are sheiks," says Hameed Khalid al-Isawi, 38, who owns a Fallujah asphalt company. "Now sheiks can do anything. There needs to be rules."

Marine officers here spend time sipping tea with sheiks and learning about tribal customs, such as embracing and kissing, which vary by clan. They call it "man kissing."

Officers carry small booklets detailing relationships among the major sheiks, tribes and clans in their areas. Members of one tribe living along the Euphrates are called the Riverfront Boys in the booklet. A visit to a tribal leader usually takes hours and involves large amounts of food, including kebabs, piles of rice, yogurt and stacks of flat bread.

U.S. officers have learned to avoid actions that can touch off a cultural crisis and potentially unravel the alliance between Americans and tribes. A team of women who searched motorists at a checkpoint leading into Fallujah recently discovered a woman with a rifle scope tucked under her robes.

The scope was confiscated, but the woman was not detained. Tribes object to anyone outside the family handling or detaining women, regardless of the circumstances.

Laws, traditions can adapt

As Iraq moves ahead, a potential source of tension is how well the traditions of the U.S.-empowered tribes mesh with the laws of Iraq's new (U.S.-backed) government. U.S. officers say tribal customs and laws aren't incompatible with democracy or modern government.

"If you've got two tribes that have a problem, generally another tribe will arbitrate the differences until a solution is found," Gurganus says. "It's a real unique, self-leveling process. That's why I don't think it will be civil government pitted against the tribal leaders."

The Abu Issa tribe has begun a program of reconciling with young members of the tribe who previously supported al-Qaeda. The reconciliation program appears to meld tribal notions about blood feuds with a modern understanding of the rule of law.

The former militant must swear to fight al-Qaeda before he can get back in the tribe's good graces, Gaskin says.

Revenge is satisfied by joining the police or army — and not vigilante action, he says. "That's how you demonstrate that you (are willing to) get blood on your hands, which will eliminate the blood feud that has brought shame on your tribe," Gaskin says.

The province's court system is in its infancy; many towns still lack judges or courts. One key difference between tribal and government law is that killings and other crimes can be settled with a payment from the criminal's family to the victim's. A payment can settle the score and the killer can avoid prison.

"In this province, you could probably kill and get away with it, but you have to play by the rules," says Marine Lt. Col. Kurt Ebaugh, a staff officer dealing with governance issues. If a killer's tribe did not produce the money, the victim's tribe could kill four members of the rival tribe, Ebaugh says.

The government is slowly establishing a court system. Sheiks say they will defer to the state's courts once they are fully established. Some say they prefer a combination of official and traditional courts. That way a victim gets compensation and the criminal is punished by the state. "We can't ignore tribal law at the same time we have state courts," Ali Jassim says.

As evidence that tribal leaders will defer to government courts, U.S. commanders cite the capture of suspects in the assassination of Abu Risha. The suspects were turned over to police despite pressure from members of the tribe to handle the matter internally.

"They're not running kangaroo courts out here," Gurganus says.

Merging tribal leaders into a modern government won't be simple. Previous efforts throughout Iraq's history have rarely worked as intended. "Not every tribal leader is an illiterate traditionalist," Marr says, but "some are."

Ellie

thedrifter
12-27-07, 09:06 AM
U.S. on Iraq: Cautious but hopeful

BAGHDAD (AP) — U.S. officials cautiously forecast Wednesday that Iraq could see more stability and less violence in 2008 despite a planned reduction of American troops. Their upbeat assesment came as Iraq's Cabinet approved the draft of a general amnesty bill for detainees being held in Iraqi prisons.

But the measure, which could go a long way toward reconciling Iraq's warring sects and factions, will not be brought to parliament for debate until March at the earliest, said a key adviser to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki adding that it would involve a limited number of detainees.

The general amnesty draft that Iraq's Cabinet approved will not involve prisoners being held by American forces, Sadiq al-Rikabi, another al-Maliki adviser, told the Associated Press.

The proposed amnesty must now go before Iraq's parliament, where it must be approved before being enacted. Many key draft laws — including an oil-revenue sharing law and one to relax de-Baathifcation measures put in place shortly after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein — have for months remained mired in Iraq's gridlocked parliament.

Both the Iraqi government and the U.S. military each hold more than 20,000 prisoners detained since the U.S.-led invasion of 2003.

There was no immediate reaction from Sunni lawmakers who have in the past called for such a bill.

Sami al-Askari, a member of parliament and another Maliki adviser, said the amnesty would not cover those convicted of terrorism, corruption, crimes against humanity and kidnapping.

It wasn't clear how many prisoners might be effected by the proposed ban. Askari estimated that "80 percent of those held in Iraqi prisons are there for terrorist crimes, therefore the amnesty would be for a limited number."

He also said parliament was unlikely to debate the amnesty bill before March or April.

In nothern Iraq, Kurdish officials delayed for six months a debate on a referendum to decide if the oil-rich northern city of Kirkuk will be incorporated into their self-rule area or remain under the control of the Shiite-dominated central government.

Speaking to reporters in Baghdad, U.S. Embassy spokesman Phil Reeker said the strides made in Iraq this year, particularly in the area of security, could not be doubted and should be acted upon.

"It is pretty clear that 2007 comes to an end in Iraq with Iraq as a substantially better place than were we began the year," he said.

Both Reeker and U.S. military spokesman Maj. Gen. Kevin Bergner, who attended the same news conference, said the sharp reduction in violence Iraq has seen since the influx of U.S. troops in June provides a chance for Iraq's leaders to resolve issues key to longer-term stability.

"What's important is that the political leaders of Iraq use the mechanisms that they can discover together to move forward, to set aside their differences, to achieve accommodation, compromise and ultimately reconciliation," Reeker said.

Bergner said the first half of 2008 will be a time of transition for American forces, along with Iraq's military and government.

Perhaps the most important factor among the developments leading to the likely drawdown of U.S. troops and Iraqis gaining more responsibility over their security has been the explosion of so-called "awakening councils" — anti-al-Qaeda in Iraq groups that once fought against American and Iraqi troops but who have now turned their guns on extremists.

"As with any transition, there is a need to help build confidence, expand the trust between individuals who at one point had been fighting against Iraqi forces or against the coalition and are now willing to serve alongside them," Bergner said.

The mostly Sunni awakening groups — of which there are some 300 who have more than 70,000 fighters — worry the Shiite-dominated government, who fear they could become an uncontrollable force that would ignite renewed sectarian fighting.

Bergner said there will undoubtedly be "tension points" as the Iraqi government embarks on a plan to incorporate about 25% of the awakening fighters into the military force.

But he argued the Sunni fighters' role has been so instrumental in a nearly 60-percent reduction in violence since June that solutions will have to be found.

The rise of the awakening councils has had a symbiotic relationship with the "surge" of U.S. forces in Iraq, a situation that has been key to tamping down militants' attacks, Bergner said.

The increase in American troops created the "conditions for local citizens to step forward and better contribute to the security in their neighborhoods" where U.S. and Iraqi forces had not been able to gain control, he noted. As security improved on the backs of the awakening councils, it gave breathing room for Iraqi forces to strengthen and contribute more to the crackdown.

As more Sunni fighters regularize into the Iraqi army — about 5% have joined so far — Bergner said it will increase Iraq's military capacity to further subdue violent areas, in spite of the planned reduction of some 30,000 American troops by July, which will put the American force level at about 135,000.

"Those forces will help coalition forces fight above their weight. They will help offset the reduction in coalition numbers," he said.

In northern Iraq, the Kurdish regional parliament voted to postpone by six months a debate on holding a referendum over whether Kirkuk will join the semiautonomous region in the north.

There was no immediate comment from the Iraqi government in Baghdad, but the referendum was widely expected to be delayed by months.

The Iraqi constitution requires that a referendum on the future status of the city be held by the end of 2007 to determine whether it will remain under Baghdad's control, become part of Kurdistan or gain autonomy from both. Kirkuk is an especially coveted city for both the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government in Baghdad and the Kurdish one in Irbil, largely because of much of Iraq's oil wealth lies below it.

Ellie