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Sparrowhawk
04-05-03, 01:35 AM
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Beirut, 1983: The deadly bombing of the U.S. Marine Operations Center was one in a spate of attacks that prompted U.S. forces to leave Lebanon




Amin Gemayel used his ties to Baghdad and Washington to try to avert war in Iraq. The former Lebanese president discusses his back-channel mediation efforts, his friendship with Donald Rumsfeld and Saddam Hussein’s plans to defend himself

By Rana Ballout
NEWSWEEK WEB EXCLUSIVE


April 4 — The parallels between the current Iraq invasion and Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon are striking. In 1982, a quick armored strike through Shiite territory led to the siege of an Arab capital.




THE GOAL WAS to remake the political landscape—to drive out the Palestine Liberation Organization and install a right-wing Christian Lebanese leader prepared to sign a peace deal with Israel. But Operation Peace for Galilee ended in failure.
Lebanese and Palestinian guerrillas armed with RPGs and AK-47s put up a fierce resistance—an important psychological breakthrough for Arabs conditioned to defeat at Israeli hands. Israel’s drawn-out occupation in South Lebanon fostered Shiite suicide attacks. The president Israel installed, Bashir Gemayel, was assassinated by a car bomb, to be replaced by his older brother. The Reagan administration pulled out of Lebanon after a spate of suicide attacks on its troops and embassies as well as kidnappings targeting intelligence officers, diplomats and journalists. Under Syrian pressure, President Amin Gemayel abrogated the peace deal with Israel. In the end, Israel lost more than 1,000 soldiers—more than in any other war—by the time it fully withdrew from Lebanon in May 2000.



Given that history, former president Gemayel—who returned to Lebanon from 12 years of self-imposed exile in France shortly after Israel’s withdrawal—has a unique window on today’s events in Iraq. He has retained close ties to Reagan-era Mideast specialists and knows Saddam Hussein well. Indeed, in the final weeks before the fighting began, the embattled Iraqi leader turned to Gemayel as a back-channel envoy to Washington in an effort to avoid attack. Lebanese journalist Rana Ballout interviewed the former president for NEWSWEEK in his Beirut office last week. Excerpts:

NEWSWEEK: What led you to open a communications channel between the Iraqi and American leadership before the invasion of Iraq?


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Former Lebanese president Amin Gemayel

Amin Gemayel: My wife and I were invited to a dinner in June 2002 at the home of my old friend Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. Also there was Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz. Even though it was a family dinner, we talked about several issues. I have known Don for a long time now, since [before he assumed the post of] U.S. President Ronald Reagan’s special envoy to the Middle East in the 1980s. I also have permanent contacts with the Iraqi leadership under President Saddam Hussein. On coming back from my trip to the U.S. I was approached by some Iraqi friends to talk about my visit to Washington and my meetings with several people there ... At the end of January and early February of this year, the contacts with the Iraqis became more intense, and I felt that they were feeling a threat from the U.S. So, I was invited to visit Baghdad and met with Saddam Hussein in order to discuss the whole situation and the Iraqi-U.S. and Iraqi-European relations.

What was your impression of Saddam Hussein?






I found President Saddam Hussein to be very determined, very calm and building an efficient system to resist the U.S.-led military coalition against Iraq.

How was he doing that?
He was counting on several elements to build his defensive strategy. One is the Iraqi Army. The army has much experience [of war] and is very well trained. The second element is the Republican Guard, a presidential unit that is very well equipped and trained. Third is the paramilitary branch of the Baath Party. They are also highly motivated and devoted to the Baath ideology and they are determined to defend the regime. Fourth, there are the tribes. And here Saddam Hussein did something very interesting ... He gave them some power and a kind of autonomy in their domestic affairs. Since then, most of the tribes became more sympathetic to the regime because they were given privileges they did not previously enjoy. That is why Saddam Hussein can count on these tribes. Their role should not be underestimated. They are spread all over Iraq and in the remote areas. This may explain some of the resistance we see against the coalition forces.

Did Saddam Hussein ask you to relay a message to the Bush administration?
I need to be clear about this. I do not hold any initiative from the Iraqis to the West and vice versa. It was not up to me to deliver messages. But because of my close ties with some influential people in Washington and my friendship with Iraq, the endeavor was an attempt after several meetings in Iraq, the U.S., Europe and the Vatican to try and find a possible common ground and ideas for a proposal.

Which party presented the most obstacles toward a compromise?
I felt that both parties were determined to go to war. The United States, they were really reluctant to start negotiations toward a compromise. And Saddam was very determined to resist and to fight. He was confident that he could do so. I can say that my impression of the mood in Iraq and the United States was not favorable for a compromise and a peaceful initiative.

Did you find that any common ground existed?
The main problem [was that] Saddam Hussein was very cooperative and open to discussing United Nations Resolution 1441. By contrast, the Bush administration considered that their previous experiences with Saddam Hussein were not encouraging; they had no confidence that he would disarm. It is really a problem of trust—the Bush administration does not trust the Iraqi leadership ... Also, my feeling was that the United States wanted to get rid of the whole Iraqi military strategy. A perception in the United States, I felt, was that the Iraqi Army was too big and too numerous in number for such a small country and such a delicate region.

How do you respond to the view that Washington’s Middle East policy-makers are neoconservatives who are waging the war against Iraq to protect Israel? Was this ever brought up during your meetings in Washington?



I have heard this in Washington ... [Virginia Congressman Jim] Moran pointed it out. And for sure that Israel will be the first beneficiary of this war.

Did it ever come up in your conversations with Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz that Iraq’s army should be reduced to pose less of a threat to Israel?
I am not willing to give any indication of the people that I met in Washington. It is very well known that I met Mr. Rumsfeld in June, you don’t need to mix all the meetings together. I don’t at all want to mention whom I met during my last trip to Washington in February [because] it is very embarrassing for these people to conduct any kind of negotiations while they are engaged in military operations.

(continued)

Sparrowhawk
04-05-03, 01:35 AM
In your opinion, what is this war about?
It is a war about ideas more than it is about land or regime change or oil. For the United States and others, too, they believe that the terror that they have faced in the last few years has its roots in the revolutionary mentality based on Marxism and fundamentalism ... They believe that they need to change the culture of the region in order to get rid of these two phenomena. Of course Marxism is less of a threat now since the collapse of communism. But Islamic fundamentalism is still growing.

Is there any chance of a ceasefire being negotiated between Baghdad and Washington? Is there a common ground?
I don’t think so. There will be no ceasefire before the real war in Iraq begins—that basically means the siege of Baghdad.


Are any diplomatic initiatives likely?
No, not for the time being.

During your trips to Washington and Baghdad, did you ever think it was possible to prevent a war?
I was trying very hard to get results that would lead to a prevention of war, even though I knew it was very difficult. Don’t forget that in February, U.S. intentions toward Iraq were very clear and that its plans were very advanced. And the United States was at that time deeply involved in war preparations.

What effects will the war on Iraq have in the region?
It will bring fundamental change to the area, and there will be a kind of Pax Americana for a while that will shake several regimes in the area. At least in the beginning, most regimes will find it in their interests to deal with the United States. This is also why the Europeans with have to put aside their anger and build bridges to the United States ... The U.S. will build on its relations to spread new ideas and a new mentality in the area, as well as reconciling with the people of the region. There will be a strong and important initiative dealing with the Palestinian-Israeli predicament. They also want to build bridges with Islam. And the resolution of the Palestinian Israeli issue could be an opening for stronger relations between the U.S. and Islamic countries.

Do you believe the American government really understands this region?
Yes, I believe that they really do ... They are ambitious determined people and they believe that they can achieve this historic achievement in order to make way for a new era in the region. If you want to make a comparison, it is that the first President Bush launched a new world order that had mainly economic connotations. The current President Bush has a view of the new world order with ideological connotations.

MillRatUSMC
04-05-03, 02:13 AM
Yes, it was mighty interesting and the outcome of this current war will HAVE AN IMPACT on relations in the middle east.
Also many other countries around the world.
There's a marked difference between 1983 and 2003.
We have gain military strenght and a more percised degree of bombing.
Our imaging has been improved, voiding any massing of large forces to confront us.
You can bet the house, that this current war is now being reviewed and taken apart in China, North Korea and many more nations out there.
The russkies have seen their old tanks taken apart by our armor.
They too will take to the drawing board to seek ways to remedy those shortcomings.
These were my thoughts on the why of this war, the American military wasn't Iraq to gain weapons of mass destruction.
Because if they did gain those, they would then blackmail us.
It was either fight or live in fear.
Living in fear isn't the American way.
I bet they're not dancing in the Gaza like the were dancing on 9/11/01.
So I was really right on the why of Iraqi Freedom...

Semper Fidelis
Ricardo

MillRatUSMC
04-05-03, 02:18 AM
A small correction;

These were my thoughts on the why of this war, the American military was determined to deny Iraq weapons of mass destruction.
Because if they did gain those, they would then blackmail us.

Again my finger typed something when my mind was thinking something else.
God, we're getting old.

Semper Fidelis
Ricardo

lurchenstein
04-05-03, 02:24 AM
No prob, here Millrat. Your points always come across 5-by.

MillRatUSMC
04-05-03, 02:25 AM
Now a question;
"How will history write this current war?"
Will they write that we fought this war because we wanted to insure the safety of Israel.
Or will they record that we fought this war for ideology, to change the thinking before this war.
Too bad, we won't be around to see history a hundred year from now.
If they record this war like they recorded Vietnam.
Those reading that history will never know the why of it all.

Semper Fidelis
Ricardo

MillRatUSMC
04-05-03, 02:29 AM
Thanks Chris and may God bless you and yours.

Semper Fidelis
Ricardo

PS I just awoken at 0200

Sgt Sostand
04-05-03, 07:40 AM
Beirut Lebanon i lost one if my best friend their :( i remember every day of that place its like i never left


Semper Fi :marine: