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thedrifter
09-03-07, 08:53 AM
Progress, deadlock likely detailed in anxiously awaited Iraq report
By William H. McMichael - bmcmichael@militarytimes.com
Posted : September 10, 2007

The war in Iraq is about to reach the tipping point — back home.

In Washington, all eyes will be on a much-anticipated, critical report from the top military and civilian U.S. officials in Iraq to a Congress looking for dramatic political and security improvements.

The authors, which will include other members of the administration, will likely report military progress but political gridlock. Given poll numbers showing two-thirds of Americans favor pulling U.S. troops out of Iraq by April 1, the report could prompt Congress to pass firm troop-withdrawal deadlines — a move approved by the House but narrowly defeated in the Senate in July.

The report will become public during the second full week of September — possibly on the sixth anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, a ripe occasion for some sort of terrorist strike, although the FBI says al-Qaida generally uses the date for propaganda purposes. And the next day marks the beginning of Ramadan, an annual month of Muslim fasting that, particularly during its final 10 days, has coincided with a rise in extremist violence in Iraq.

As these events coincide, U.S. troops in Iraq forge ahead, launching a new twist on the pacification strategy that is the goal of the troop surge launched in February and in full force since early June.

During the next several weeks, Operation Phantom Strike forces are trying to hold territory that has been cleared and surgically strike pockets of extremists that officials believe have become scattered and isolated as a result of the surge, which has centered on greater Baghdad and Diyala province.

“Over the coming weeks, we plan to conduct quick-strike raids against remaining extremist sanctuaries and staging areas, carry out precision targeting operations against extremist leadership and focus missions to counter the extremists’ lethal accelerants of choice, the IED and the vehicle-borne IED,” Army Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, the top U.S. ground commander in Iraq, told Pentagon reporters Aug. 17.

“We will continue to hunt down their leadership, deny them safe haven, disrupt their supply lines and significantly reduce their capability to operate in Iraq.”

Odierno said the U.S. is making “steady progress” and will not give up any ground it currently controls.

Odierno did not elaborate on how such strikes could be launched, given current troop levels, without diluting the troop strength needed to continue securing areas now held. A Pentagon official, speaking confidentially because of the sensitivity of the subject, said the U.S. will rely on Iraqi security forces to hold territory.

The administration security strategy known as “clear-hold-build,” the defense official said, has been translated in practice to “hold for a while” because of faulty coalition staying power: Iraqi security forces weren’t up to it, and there were not enough U.S. troops. Three months after the full surge of 28,500 troops has been in place, that has changed, he said.

“The Iraqis are building up their capability,” the official said. “It’s the Iraqis who will hold; that will free up our troops to do these quick strikes.”

The strikes could take the form of air as well as ground attacks, Odierno said. Over time, “we will increase the amount of Iraqi participation in these operations.”

A “large majority” of those involving special operations forces also will include troops from both countries, he said.

Odierno did not explain how the U.S. will target extremist elements in areas where it has no troop presence, and thus lacks the human intelligence necessary to strike with precision. The defense official at the Pentagon said the U.S. will rely on tips.

“The number of tips we’re getting has gone up exponentially,” the official said. “We’re now being seen more as leverage against al-Qaida.”

That’s particularly true in once-highly volatile Anbar province, he said, adding that U.S. success in engaging local leaders there, and the resulting dip in violence, has freed up U.S. troops for possible quick-strike missions.

Yet while Odierno said the new effort would target both al-Qaida and Shiite extremist groups, the official acknowledged that al-Qaida is the No. 1 target — even though Shiite extremists carried out nearly half of all attacks on troops and civilians across Iraq in July, up from about 30 percent in January, Odierno said.

He expressed concern about what he said was the increasing Iranian influence on Shiite groups, to include providing training and weapons. But as the defense source pointed out, the Bush administration has declared al-Qaida “Public Enemy No. 1” in Iraq.

How long such efforts will continue remains to be seen. But no one argues that troops are overextended and equipment is wearing down. Barring an extraordinary move by the administration, surge units will begin coming home in the spring, when the first ones to deploy hit the 15-month mark.

“The one thing we’ve dedicated to our soldiers is that you will not be here longer than 15 months,” Odierno said.

The administration, of course, could take heart from the military progress and try to extend the surge with other units. The question, Odierno said, “is if there’s anybody to backfill. Right now, our plan is not to backfill those units, but [Army] General [David] Petraeus, as we continue to make assessments, will make that decision.”

Ellie