thedrifter
07-17-07, 10:49 AM
Report: Al-Qaida may use Iraqis to attack U.S.
By Katherine Shrader and Anne Flaherty - The Associated Press
Posted : Tuesday Jul 17, 2007 9:29:54 EDT
The terrorist network Al-Qaida will likely leverage its contacts and capabilities in Iraq to mount an attack on U.S. soil, according to a new National Intelligence Estimate on threats to the American homeland.
The declassified key findings, to be released publicly Tuesday, were obtained in advance by The Associated Press.
The report lays out a range of dangers — from al-Qaida to Hezbollah to non-Muslim radical groups — that pose a “persistent and evolving threat” to the country over the next three years. As expected, however, the findings focus most of their attention on the gravest terror problem: Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaida network.
The report makes clear that al-Qaida in Iraq, which has not yet posed a direct threat to U.S. soil, could become a problem here.
“Of note,” the analysts said, “we assess that al-Qaida will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qaida in Iraq, its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the homeland.”
The analysts also found that al-Qaida’s association with its Iraqi affiliate helps the group to energize the broader Sunni Muslim extremist community, raise resources and recruit and indoctrinate operatives — “including for homeland attacks.”
National Intelligence Estimates are the most authoritative written judgments of the 16 spy agencies across the breadth of the U.S. government. These agencies reflect the consensus, long-term thinking of top intelligence analysts. Portions of the documents are occasionally declassified for public release.
The new report echoed statements made by senior intelligence officials over the last year but provided some new depth on their thinking and concerns.
For instance, the report says that worldwide counterterrorism efforts since 2001 have constrained al-Qaida’s ability to attack the U.S. again and convinced terror groups that U.S. soil is a tougher target.
But, the report quickly adds, analysts are concerned “that this level of international cooperation may wane as 9/11 becomes a more distant memory and perceptions of the threat diverge.”
Among the report’s other findings:
* Al-Qaida is likely to continue to focus on high-profile political, economic and infrastructure targets to cause mass casualties, visually dramatic destruction, economic aftershocks and fear. “The group is proficient with conventional small arms and improvised explosive devices and is innovative in creating new capabilities and overcoming security obstacles.”
* The group has been able to restore key elements it would need to launch an attack on U.S. soil: a safe haven in Pakistan’s tribal areas, operational lieutenants and senior leaders.
* The group will continue to seek weapons of mass destruction — chemical, biological or nuclear material — and “would not hesitate to use them.”
* Lebanese Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim extremist group that has conducted anti-American attacks overseas, may be more likely to consider attacking here, especially if it believes the U.S. is directly threatening the group or its main sponsor, Iran.
* Non-Muslim terrorist groups probably will attack here in the next several years, although on a smaller scale. The judgments don’t name any specific groups, but the FBI often warns of violent environmental groups, such as Earth Liberation Front and others.
Ellie
By Katherine Shrader and Anne Flaherty - The Associated Press
Posted : Tuesday Jul 17, 2007 9:29:54 EDT
The terrorist network Al-Qaida will likely leverage its contacts and capabilities in Iraq to mount an attack on U.S. soil, according to a new National Intelligence Estimate on threats to the American homeland.
The declassified key findings, to be released publicly Tuesday, were obtained in advance by The Associated Press.
The report lays out a range of dangers — from al-Qaida to Hezbollah to non-Muslim radical groups — that pose a “persistent and evolving threat” to the country over the next three years. As expected, however, the findings focus most of their attention on the gravest terror problem: Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaida network.
The report makes clear that al-Qaida in Iraq, which has not yet posed a direct threat to U.S. soil, could become a problem here.
“Of note,” the analysts said, “we assess that al-Qaida will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qaida in Iraq, its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the homeland.”
The analysts also found that al-Qaida’s association with its Iraqi affiliate helps the group to energize the broader Sunni Muslim extremist community, raise resources and recruit and indoctrinate operatives — “including for homeland attacks.”
National Intelligence Estimates are the most authoritative written judgments of the 16 spy agencies across the breadth of the U.S. government. These agencies reflect the consensus, long-term thinking of top intelligence analysts. Portions of the documents are occasionally declassified for public release.
The new report echoed statements made by senior intelligence officials over the last year but provided some new depth on their thinking and concerns.
For instance, the report says that worldwide counterterrorism efforts since 2001 have constrained al-Qaida’s ability to attack the U.S. again and convinced terror groups that U.S. soil is a tougher target.
But, the report quickly adds, analysts are concerned “that this level of international cooperation may wane as 9/11 becomes a more distant memory and perceptions of the threat diverge.”
Among the report’s other findings:
* Al-Qaida is likely to continue to focus on high-profile political, economic and infrastructure targets to cause mass casualties, visually dramatic destruction, economic aftershocks and fear. “The group is proficient with conventional small arms and improvised explosive devices and is innovative in creating new capabilities and overcoming security obstacles.”
* The group has been able to restore key elements it would need to launch an attack on U.S. soil: a safe haven in Pakistan’s tribal areas, operational lieutenants and senior leaders.
* The group will continue to seek weapons of mass destruction — chemical, biological or nuclear material — and “would not hesitate to use them.”
* Lebanese Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim extremist group that has conducted anti-American attacks overseas, may be more likely to consider attacking here, especially if it believes the U.S. is directly threatening the group or its main sponsor, Iran.
* Non-Muslim terrorist groups probably will attack here in the next several years, although on a smaller scale. The judgments don’t name any specific groups, but the FBI often warns of violent environmental groups, such as Earth Liberation Front and others.
Ellie