thedrifter
02-14-03, 06:53 AM
February 12, 2003 22:43
New York Tunnels Fit al Qaeda Strategy
By Tom Knowlton
The United States this week is bracing for a possible major terrorist attack by al Qaeda, and nuggets of information released by U.S. intelligence officials point to New York City as the intended target area.
On Sunday, Feb. 9, 2003, news reports speculated on the possibility of a chemical, biological or radiological attack against the New York City subway system.
The reports came just two days after the Bush administration raised the national terror alert from yellow to orange, the second-highest level possible. Attorney General John Ashcroft cited an "increased likelihood" that al Qaeda terrorists would launch an attack or attacks within the continental United States.
Intelligence sources believe that a significant amount of intercepted international phone "chatter" between suspected al Qaeda operatives is paralleling a pattern that occurred just prior to the 9/11 attacks. Most alarmingly, the suspected terrorist operatives have been observed discussing a strike "underground" at the heart of where they achieved their "last great victory."
U.S. government homeland security officials believe that the suspected operatives are referring to a strike against the subway system of New York City, which has remained on orange alert since 9/11.
Reporters Larry Celona and Brad Hunter of The New York Post, in an article headlined, "Target Subway," were the first to reveal that senior U.S. intelligence officials feared that the next al Qaeda strike will involve biological, chemical or radiological weapons. Two days later on Feb. 11, 2003, CIA Director George Tenet publicly warned that the terrorists could strike within days, perhaps using a radiological "dirty bomb."
Intelligence sources fear that the release of audiotape statements by Osama bin Laden on Feb. 11, 2003, which emulated the style of his late mentor Abdullah Azzam, may have been timed as a "go signal" to covert al Qaeda operatives.
The most serious terrorist attack against a subway system occurred in Japan in 1995 by the Aum Shinrikyo cult. Aum cult members transported sarin nerve agent as a liquid solution, disguised in packages made to look like lunch boxes and bottled drinks, which they punctured with umbrellas and left in subway cars and stations. The attack killed 12 people and injured over 5,000, but the potency of the sarin gas was significantly hampered by the wide dispersal area and subway ventilation systems.
A second incident occurred in 1997, when two members of the Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas were apprehended as they conspired to detonate a bomb in a Brooklyn subway station in a predominately Jewish neighborhood.
While I agree that the information gathered to date does appear to indicate a pending terrorist attack by al Qaeda in New York City and that the subway system could be a viable target, I believe that an equally likely target could be either the Lincoln or Holland Tunnel.
Dr. Joshua Sinai, a senior policy analyst in the Regional Conflict Division of Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER), acknowledged in his recent report, Forecasting the Next Waves of Catastrophic Terrorism, that "the 11 September attacks involved meticulous planning, training and precisely timed simultaneous execution. Al Qaeda is highly meticulous and innovative, operationally and tactically." Dr. Sinai further stated that "The simultaneous attacks of 11 September [2001] portend that the next phase will likely involve even more catastrophic assaults, with each successive plot employing newer and deadlier weapons and devices that seek to exploit additional U.S. and allied infrastructural vulnerabilities."
But most alarming in light of the recent terrorist threat advisory is Dr. Sinai's observation that "previous terrorist attacks, failed attacks or plots not yet executed serve as blueprints for intentions and future targeting."
It is important to note that several members of both al Qaeda and the al Qaeda-linked al Fuqra terrorist organization were convicted along with Sheikh Omar Abdul Rahman in connection with the first World Trade Center attack in 1993 and a plot to bomb New York City tunnels and landmarks. It has been ominously observed that since 1993, al Fuqra has hosted numerous low-level Tri-State area bridge and tunnel workers for weekend retreats at their compound in Hancock, N.Y.
Like the World Trade Center, the Holland Tunnel, although not the first Hudson River tunnel, represents a feat of American engineering and is a historic landmark, making it an attractive target for al Qaeda.
While "blowing up" the tunnel or even creating a breach in a tube that would allow the Hudson River to come rushing in is not a realistic threat, there is still a significant danger posed by such a terrorist attack.
An assault upon the Holland Tunnel, which handles approximately 100,000 vehicles per day, would likely take the form of three near-simultaneous explosions in at least one of the tunnel's tubes. The first two explosions would likely occur at the mouth of the tube's entrance and exit, areas not afforded protection by the Hudson River bed's subterranean rock. The goal of these explosions would be to damage or collapse the tunnel entry and exit ways to hinder or prevent both escape and rescue. The third explosion would occur within the tunnel and likely involve the dispersal of chemical, biological or radiological agents.
According to Steve Anderson's "Bridge and Tunnel Facts," the tunnel's ventilation system "consists of 42 blowing fans and 42 exhaust fans - totaling 6,000 horsepower - arranged in four ventilation buildings. (Only 56 out of the total 84 fans are in operation at all times; the other 28 fans are reserved for emergencies.) It takes approximately 90 minutes to completely change the air in the tunnel."
After the 9/11 attacks, an initiative to replace the fans was undertaken and is expected to be completed by 2004. While it would take an enormous amount of chemical, biological or radiological material to be dispersed in lethal amounts throughout the tube's entire 8,000-foot length, far more than could be conceivably be smuggled into the tunnel, a greater secondary danger may be posed by the exhaust fumes of trapped cars. It is believed that if the carbon monoxide level in the tube's air reaches only one-half percent it would be lethal.
To ignore the potential danger to the NYC subway would be a grievance mistake, but so too would be concluding that the "underground" target discussed was conclusively and exclusively the subway system.
Al Qaeda renewed its failed 1993 attack on the World Trade Center in 2001 with deadly efficiency, as well as revisited convicted al Qaeda terrorist Ramzi Yousef's foiled 1995 plan to hijack planes and utilize them as weapons of mass destruction. And only a year after failing to strike one U.S. Navy warship, al Qaeda inflicted serious damage on the USS Cole.
If the al Qaeda terrorist cooperative's pattern of attacks persists, it would indicate a good likelihood that they plan to strike against previously targeted sites such as the Lincoln and Holland Tunnels.
Tom Knowlton is a Contributing Editor of DefenseWatch. He can be reached at TKnowltonDW@aol.com.
Sempers,
Roger
New York Tunnels Fit al Qaeda Strategy
By Tom Knowlton
The United States this week is bracing for a possible major terrorist attack by al Qaeda, and nuggets of information released by U.S. intelligence officials point to New York City as the intended target area.
On Sunday, Feb. 9, 2003, news reports speculated on the possibility of a chemical, biological or radiological attack against the New York City subway system.
The reports came just two days after the Bush administration raised the national terror alert from yellow to orange, the second-highest level possible. Attorney General John Ashcroft cited an "increased likelihood" that al Qaeda terrorists would launch an attack or attacks within the continental United States.
Intelligence sources believe that a significant amount of intercepted international phone "chatter" between suspected al Qaeda operatives is paralleling a pattern that occurred just prior to the 9/11 attacks. Most alarmingly, the suspected terrorist operatives have been observed discussing a strike "underground" at the heart of where they achieved their "last great victory."
U.S. government homeland security officials believe that the suspected operatives are referring to a strike against the subway system of New York City, which has remained on orange alert since 9/11.
Reporters Larry Celona and Brad Hunter of The New York Post, in an article headlined, "Target Subway," were the first to reveal that senior U.S. intelligence officials feared that the next al Qaeda strike will involve biological, chemical or radiological weapons. Two days later on Feb. 11, 2003, CIA Director George Tenet publicly warned that the terrorists could strike within days, perhaps using a radiological "dirty bomb."
Intelligence sources fear that the release of audiotape statements by Osama bin Laden on Feb. 11, 2003, which emulated the style of his late mentor Abdullah Azzam, may have been timed as a "go signal" to covert al Qaeda operatives.
The most serious terrorist attack against a subway system occurred in Japan in 1995 by the Aum Shinrikyo cult. Aum cult members transported sarin nerve agent as a liquid solution, disguised in packages made to look like lunch boxes and bottled drinks, which they punctured with umbrellas and left in subway cars and stations. The attack killed 12 people and injured over 5,000, but the potency of the sarin gas was significantly hampered by the wide dispersal area and subway ventilation systems.
A second incident occurred in 1997, when two members of the Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas were apprehended as they conspired to detonate a bomb in a Brooklyn subway station in a predominately Jewish neighborhood.
While I agree that the information gathered to date does appear to indicate a pending terrorist attack by al Qaeda in New York City and that the subway system could be a viable target, I believe that an equally likely target could be either the Lincoln or Holland Tunnel.
Dr. Joshua Sinai, a senior policy analyst in the Regional Conflict Division of Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER), acknowledged in his recent report, Forecasting the Next Waves of Catastrophic Terrorism, that "the 11 September attacks involved meticulous planning, training and precisely timed simultaneous execution. Al Qaeda is highly meticulous and innovative, operationally and tactically." Dr. Sinai further stated that "The simultaneous attacks of 11 September [2001] portend that the next phase will likely involve even more catastrophic assaults, with each successive plot employing newer and deadlier weapons and devices that seek to exploit additional U.S. and allied infrastructural vulnerabilities."
But most alarming in light of the recent terrorist threat advisory is Dr. Sinai's observation that "previous terrorist attacks, failed attacks or plots not yet executed serve as blueprints for intentions and future targeting."
It is important to note that several members of both al Qaeda and the al Qaeda-linked al Fuqra terrorist organization were convicted along with Sheikh Omar Abdul Rahman in connection with the first World Trade Center attack in 1993 and a plot to bomb New York City tunnels and landmarks. It has been ominously observed that since 1993, al Fuqra has hosted numerous low-level Tri-State area bridge and tunnel workers for weekend retreats at their compound in Hancock, N.Y.
Like the World Trade Center, the Holland Tunnel, although not the first Hudson River tunnel, represents a feat of American engineering and is a historic landmark, making it an attractive target for al Qaeda.
While "blowing up" the tunnel or even creating a breach in a tube that would allow the Hudson River to come rushing in is not a realistic threat, there is still a significant danger posed by such a terrorist attack.
An assault upon the Holland Tunnel, which handles approximately 100,000 vehicles per day, would likely take the form of three near-simultaneous explosions in at least one of the tunnel's tubes. The first two explosions would likely occur at the mouth of the tube's entrance and exit, areas not afforded protection by the Hudson River bed's subterranean rock. The goal of these explosions would be to damage or collapse the tunnel entry and exit ways to hinder or prevent both escape and rescue. The third explosion would occur within the tunnel and likely involve the dispersal of chemical, biological or radiological agents.
According to Steve Anderson's "Bridge and Tunnel Facts," the tunnel's ventilation system "consists of 42 blowing fans and 42 exhaust fans - totaling 6,000 horsepower - arranged in four ventilation buildings. (Only 56 out of the total 84 fans are in operation at all times; the other 28 fans are reserved for emergencies.) It takes approximately 90 minutes to completely change the air in the tunnel."
After the 9/11 attacks, an initiative to replace the fans was undertaken and is expected to be completed by 2004. While it would take an enormous amount of chemical, biological or radiological material to be dispersed in lethal amounts throughout the tube's entire 8,000-foot length, far more than could be conceivably be smuggled into the tunnel, a greater secondary danger may be posed by the exhaust fumes of trapped cars. It is believed that if the carbon monoxide level in the tube's air reaches only one-half percent it would be lethal.
To ignore the potential danger to the NYC subway would be a grievance mistake, but so too would be concluding that the "underground" target discussed was conclusively and exclusively the subway system.
Al Qaeda renewed its failed 1993 attack on the World Trade Center in 2001 with deadly efficiency, as well as revisited convicted al Qaeda terrorist Ramzi Yousef's foiled 1995 plan to hijack planes and utilize them as weapons of mass destruction. And only a year after failing to strike one U.S. Navy warship, al Qaeda inflicted serious damage on the USS Cole.
If the al Qaeda terrorist cooperative's pattern of attacks persists, it would indicate a good likelihood that they plan to strike against previously targeted sites such as the Lincoln and Holland Tunnels.
Tom Knowlton is a Contributing Editor of DefenseWatch. He can be reached at TKnowltonDW@aol.com.
Sempers,
Roger