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thedrifter
01-02-07, 07:40 AM
Everything but the Ring
Will Peyton Manning be the Greatest Quarterback Never to Win the Big One?

BY ALLEN BARRA
Tuesday, January 2, 2007 12:01 a.m. EST

When Peyton Manning was drafted by the Indianapolis Colts in 1998, his potential seemed virtually unlimited. Many thought he had the talent to become the greatest passer in the history of the National Football League.

In the record books, Mr. Manning has lived up to those expectations--in every way but one. He has never won a Super Bowl, and as the Colts prepare to face the Kansas City Chiefs in the first round of the NFL playoffs this Saturday, his window of opportunity may be closing.

In March, he will be 31, the age when most quarterbacks begin to slide. Some of the Colts' biggest stars, particularly 34-year-old Marvin Harrison, may not be on the roster next season or will be past their prime. Most NFL analysts think this could well be Mr. Manning's last big shot at the Super Bowl before the Colts have to start rebuilding.

How good has Peyton Manning been? By any measure, he stands at or near the top of the game's all-time greats. Because he has played his entire career with the Colts, he has often been compared with the franchise's other great quarterback, Johnny Unitas. Unitas appeared in 211 games from 1956 to 1973; if Mr. Manning stays healthy, midway through next season he will have played in more than 150 and will be poised to surpass Unitas's career marks in both yards passing and touchdown passes.

Since Johnny U. retired, Dan Marino has been regarded as the league's top passer. After only nine seasons, Mr. Manning is 13th on the all-time list of total yards passing and seventh in touchdown passes. At his current pace, he is a cinch to pass Mr. Marino, the all-time leader in both categories.

Let's compare Messrs. Marino and Manning after nine full seasons. By 1991, Mr. Marino had thrown 4,730 passes for 35,116 yards with an excellent average of 7.42 yards a throw. He had 266 touchdown passes to 149 interceptions. After Sunday's season-closing victory against Miami, Mr. Manning has thrown 4,890 passes for 37,586 yards--an average yards per throw of 7.70. He has 275 career TD passes to just 139 interceptions.

Unfortunately, Mr. Manning also compares to Mr. Marino in one other important respect: Neither was at his best in the postseason. Marino was 8-10; going into Saturday's game, Manning is 3-6. Neither quarterback has ever won the big one, but Mr. Marino, at least, made it to the Super Bowl in 1985.

Some critics of Mr. Manning's postseason play have been merciless. Kerry Byrne, editor of the cutting-edge Web site Cold Hard Football Facts, calls him "the Picasso of choke artists. When the bell rings for the playoffs, he becomes second-rate." Is the criticism justified? Four times--in 1999 against the Tennessee Titans, 2003 against the New England Patriots, 2004 against the Patriots, and last year against the Pittsburgh Steelers--the Colts have lost in the playoffs to the team that went on to win the Super Bowl. Two of those losses were by just three points. Did the Colts choke, or simply lose to better teams?

More to the point, did Mr. Manning himself choke? Let's look at his postseason performance in comparison to three-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady of the New England Patriots. Going into this week's playoffs, Mr. Brady has appeared in 11 postseason games and thrown 367 passes for 2,493 yards. In nine postseason games, Manning has thrown 322 passes for 2,461 yards. Mr. Brady has 15 touchdown passes against five interceptions; Mr. Manning, in two fewer games, has also thrown for 15 touchdowns, but has eight interceptions. Mr. Manning's postseason interception rate of 2.5% isn't bad; Mr. Brady's, at 1.4%, is one of the best ever. But Mr. Manning's yards per throw, 7.6 (less than a tenth of a yard behind his career average), is substantially higher than Mr. Brady's 6.8.

Since 1999, his second season, Mr. Manning and the Colts have scored 21.8 points per game in the playoffs, which is below their regular-season average of 26, but not significantly lower, given the quality of playoff defenses. The Colts' postseason defense, on the other hand, has allowed an average of 23.7 points per game. The Patriots, in their 11 postseason games with Mr. Brady, have averaged 23.5 points per game on offense and allowed only 16.8 on defense.

It may not necessarily be true that, as ex-coaches are constantly telling us, defense wins championships. But it can be said with some certainty that defense has been the main reason the Patriots won theirs. Given the postseason records of Messrs. Manning and Brady, it's not inconceivable that if the quarterbacks had swapped defenses, Peyton would now be wearing a couple of Super Bowl rings.

The case for calling Mr. Manning a choker isn't a strong one, but it will be if Indianapolis loses at the RCA Dome this Saturday to the Kansas City Chiefs, a team they are favored to beat by seven points. Anything less than a perfect postseason through the Super Bowl on Feb. 4 will likely change Mr. Manning's unofficial title from "Greatest Passer in the History of the NFL" to "Greatest Quarterback Never to Win the Big One."

Ellie