jinelson
10-12-06, 12:36 PM
www.stratfor.com
October 11, 2006 13 31 GMT
Summary
Iraqi officials arrested the head of a mess hall where more than 350 Iraqi police recruits fell ill from food poisoning. A number of peculiarities surrounding the incident suggest this was a chemical attack, indicating a potential shift in tactics by Sunni militants in Iraq.
Analysis
Iraqi authorities have arrested the head of a police mess hall in the town of Numaniyah, about 75 miles south of Baghdad, where 350 to 400 Iraqi police recruits fell ill from food poisoning Oct. 8. Eleven people reportedly have died so far and many of the victims are still being treated. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has ordered an investigation into the incident.
The recruits reportedly were eating hamburgers and yogurt as part of their Iftar dinner, a meal eaten after dusk to break the daily fast during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. Dr. Matheel Alwan, head of Kut General Hospital, said samples of the food and water have been sent to Baghdad, where tests will be run to determine what exactly was contaminated. Alwan also claims that either spoiled hamburger or spoiled yogurt was the cause of the illness and that only the people who consumed the food fell ill.
Though a meal of ground beef and curdled yogurt sitting out under the hot Iraqi sun does not exactly conform to typical health standards, this particular food poisoning incident is not a simple case of spoiled food. According to officials from the Iraqi Ministry of Health, many of the people who ate at the police base began to collapse and feel symptoms soon after eating, with many reportedly bleeding from the ears and nose. General symptoms for poisoning resulting from rotten food include nausea, vomiting, abdominal cramping and diarrhea that become apparent within 48 hours of consuming the contaminated food or drink. Notably absent from these typical symptoms is bleeding from ears and nose.
External bleeding is usually a sign of problems with blood coagulation, an effect that is commonly produced by pesticides such as rat poison. More lethal concentrations of rat poison can be tasteless and odorless, increasing the difficulty of detecting the chemical in food. The act of sabotaging food with rat poison is a particularly common business tactic in China. For example, a Chinese restaurant owner in Tangshan was sentenced to death for contaminating his business rival's breakfast snack product in September. Residents in Tangshan said customers at the rival's restaurant collapsed, with some bleeding from the mouth and ears, after eating fried dough sticks, sesame cakes and sticky rice balls.
The probable chemical attack at the mess hall in southern Iraq is likely the work of Sunni militants looking to vary their tactics. The victims of the food poisoning were part of the 4th Division of the National Police, whose officers are mainly made up of Shia. Sectarian violence in Iraq has reached dangerously high levels, and this incident will only result in more widespread retaliatory killings against Sunnis by Shiite death squads under the watch of Iraq's Shiite-controlled Interior Ministry.
The inclusion of chemical attacks in the Sunni militant modus operandi is yet another indication that a political resolution in Iraq remains a distant dream. A chemical attack such as this does not necessarily produce high body counts, but is enough of a catalyst to fuel distrust through the security forces and further paralyze the government's ability to overcome sectarian differences and take over the security responsibilities necessary for the United States to execute an exit strategy for Iraq.
The Oct. 8 attack could very well have been a test run to determine how much of an effect the poison would have on a large target set, and similar attacks could be in store. If militants in Iraq are indeed looking at chemical attacks as an attractive option, the alarmingly low degree of security at mess halls throughout the country could make the job fairly easy. For a handsome sum, cooks and workers at bases could be enticed to poison food consumed by coalition troops.
October 11, 2006 13 31 GMT
Summary
Iraqi officials arrested the head of a mess hall where more than 350 Iraqi police recruits fell ill from food poisoning. A number of peculiarities surrounding the incident suggest this was a chemical attack, indicating a potential shift in tactics by Sunni militants in Iraq.
Analysis
Iraqi authorities have arrested the head of a police mess hall in the town of Numaniyah, about 75 miles south of Baghdad, where 350 to 400 Iraqi police recruits fell ill from food poisoning Oct. 8. Eleven people reportedly have died so far and many of the victims are still being treated. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has ordered an investigation into the incident.
The recruits reportedly were eating hamburgers and yogurt as part of their Iftar dinner, a meal eaten after dusk to break the daily fast during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. Dr. Matheel Alwan, head of Kut General Hospital, said samples of the food and water have been sent to Baghdad, where tests will be run to determine what exactly was contaminated. Alwan also claims that either spoiled hamburger or spoiled yogurt was the cause of the illness and that only the people who consumed the food fell ill.
Though a meal of ground beef and curdled yogurt sitting out under the hot Iraqi sun does not exactly conform to typical health standards, this particular food poisoning incident is not a simple case of spoiled food. According to officials from the Iraqi Ministry of Health, many of the people who ate at the police base began to collapse and feel symptoms soon after eating, with many reportedly bleeding from the ears and nose. General symptoms for poisoning resulting from rotten food include nausea, vomiting, abdominal cramping and diarrhea that become apparent within 48 hours of consuming the contaminated food or drink. Notably absent from these typical symptoms is bleeding from ears and nose.
External bleeding is usually a sign of problems with blood coagulation, an effect that is commonly produced by pesticides such as rat poison. More lethal concentrations of rat poison can be tasteless and odorless, increasing the difficulty of detecting the chemical in food. The act of sabotaging food with rat poison is a particularly common business tactic in China. For example, a Chinese restaurant owner in Tangshan was sentenced to death for contaminating his business rival's breakfast snack product in September. Residents in Tangshan said customers at the rival's restaurant collapsed, with some bleeding from the mouth and ears, after eating fried dough sticks, sesame cakes and sticky rice balls.
The probable chemical attack at the mess hall in southern Iraq is likely the work of Sunni militants looking to vary their tactics. The victims of the food poisoning were part of the 4th Division of the National Police, whose officers are mainly made up of Shia. Sectarian violence in Iraq has reached dangerously high levels, and this incident will only result in more widespread retaliatory killings against Sunnis by Shiite death squads under the watch of Iraq's Shiite-controlled Interior Ministry.
The inclusion of chemical attacks in the Sunni militant modus operandi is yet another indication that a political resolution in Iraq remains a distant dream. A chemical attack such as this does not necessarily produce high body counts, but is enough of a catalyst to fuel distrust through the security forces and further paralyze the government's ability to overcome sectarian differences and take over the security responsibilities necessary for the United States to execute an exit strategy for Iraq.
The Oct. 8 attack could very well have been a test run to determine how much of an effect the poison would have on a large target set, and similar attacks could be in store. If militants in Iraq are indeed looking at chemical attacks as an attractive option, the alarmingly low degree of security at mess halls throughout the country could make the job fairly easy. For a handsome sum, cooks and workers at bases could be enticed to poison food consumed by coalition troops.