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thedrifter
10-01-06, 04:02 PM
Borrowed from Hubby

"Not Today, Sir." (Awaiting The Rebellion)
October 01, 2006
By Fred Reed

When, one wonders, will mutiny begin among the troops in Iraq?

Recently I talked by email about the war with Jim Coyne, an airborne-infantry friend who served two tours as a gunship door-gunner in Viet Nam and then made a career in journalism. I asked, "Do they [I meant the officer corps, the official military] actually believe the optimistic twaddle this time around? Do they really not know what is happening?"

Jim's response: "In my opinion, they really don't know; they may not even want to know on some level. You know as well as I, these are mission-oriented folks; can do folks; failure and its introspective handmaidens are not options to them. And in a tactical mission-oriented world our military doesn't really fail very often; in a strategic military/political world such as the Mideast and Iraq, however, we simply cannot win.

"Again, as in Viet Nam, the career officer corps salutes and marches toward the sound of battle. Eventually however (and it won't be long now) it's the grunts who will begin to revolt, first in small ways (as in the 101st in late 1968, "No sir. We are not going up that hill again.) and then, quickly thereafter (As in 1973, "F u c k you, a s s h o l e.") By that time the media may get wind of things and spin it exponentially out of control. That's what I think."

So do I.

We have two sharply differing versions of Iraq. One comes from the professional officers. It holds that the military is making progress and the insurgents losing ground. The Iraqi people love us and want the benefits that we will bring them. The increasing attacks by insurgents are signs of desperation. Things seem bad only because the media emphasize the negative. The officers see light at the end of the tunnel. The body counts are great; the bad guys can't much longer take the pounding we are giving them. Onward and upward.

The other view comes from enlisted men (and from a lot of reporters before being edited to say whatever the publisher believes). These assert that the Iraqis hate us and we, them; that the insurgency is growing in strength, that we are not making progress but going backward, that our tactics don't work and we can't win.

The pattern is so common in recent wars as to be routine. The enlisted men know that the US is losing. The officers do not know it, or refuse to know it. This will eventually have consequences.

When men die pointlessly in a war they know cannot be won and that means nothing to them, when they realize that they are dying for the egos of draft-dodging politicians safe in Washington-they will revolt. It happened before. It will happen again. But when? Next year, I'd guess.

It is important to understand that officers and enlisted men are very different animals. For example, enlisted men do things (drive the tank, repair the helicopter) whereas officers are chiefly administrators. But the important difference is psychological. Enlisted men are blue-collar guys or technicians. They carry little ideological overburden. They want to fix the tank or finish the field exercise and then go drink beer and get laid.

Above all, they are realists. If the new radio doesn't work, or Baghdad turns out to be a tactically irresolvable nightmare, the enlisted guys feel very little urge to pretend otherwise. This is why officers do not like reporters to be alone with the troops. And they seriously don't.

The standard response of the officer corps is that the troops cannot see the Big Picture. (Unless of course the enlisteds say what the officers want to hear, in which case their experience on the ground lends irresistible authority). But the Big Picture rests on the Little Picture. If a soldier sees slow disaster where he is, and hears the same thing from guys he meets from everywhere else in the country, his conclusions will not be without weight. Sooner or later, on his third tour with a pregnant wife at home and seven friends killed by bombs, he will say, in the crude but expressive language of soldiers, "f u c k this s h i t."

By contrast, officers can't conclude anything but the positive. There are several reasons. Career officers, first, are politicians. You don't get promoted by saying that the higher-ups are otherworldly incompetents. An officer's loyalty is to his career, and to the officer corps, not to the country or to his troops. If this sounds harsh, note how seldom an active-duty officer will criticize policy, yet when he retires he may suddenly discover that said policy resulted in unnecessary deaths among the troops. Oh? Then why didn't he say so when it would have saved lives?

There is a curious moral cowardice among officers. They will fly dangerous missions over Baghdad, but they won't say that things aren't going well. They don't go against their herd.

Further, and I want to say this carefully, officers often are not quite adults. They can be (and usually are) smart, competent, dedicated, and physically brave, and some are exceedingly hard men. But there is a simple-mindedness about them, an aversion to the handmaidens of introspection, a certain boyishness as in kids playing soldier. A lot of make-believe goes into an officer's world. Enlisted men, grown up, see things as they are. Officers are issued a world by the command and then live in it.

Note the heavy emphasis of the military, meaning the officer corps, on ritual and pageantry. It is adult kid-stuff. Three thousand men building a skyscraper just show up, do their jobs, and go home. The military wants its men standing in squares, precisely at attention, thumbs along the seams, with brass perfectly polished. It wants stirring music, snappy salutes, and the haunting tones of taps, "Yes sir, yes sir, three bags full, sir." This is justified as necessary for discipline. It isn't. A gunny sergeant has no difficulty maintaining his authority without the hoop-la.

Officers remind me of armed Moonies. There is the same earnestness, the same deliberate optimism-by-policy. Things are going well because doctrine says they are. An officer is as ideologically upbeat as Reader's Digest, and as unreflective. This is the why they don't learn, why the US is again flailing about, trying to fight hornets with elephant guns. "Yessir, can do, sir." Well, sometimes, and sometimes not. It is not arrogance, more like a belief in gravitation.

And so we hear phrases that embody the eternal precedence of oo-rah! over realism: "There is no substitute for victory," or "The difficult we do immediately; the impossible takes a little longer," or "Defeat is not an option." But sometimes it is an inevitability.

I think Jim is right. Sooner or later, a unit won't go up the hill again. Then it will be over.

Ellie

yellowwing
10-01-06, 04:20 PM
I don't think ole Fred Reed understands who we really are.

Marinewing
10-01-06, 06:11 PM
AD enlisted Marines that I know do not have such a negative view, though none are claiming that Iraqis are in love with us. That depends on what part of the country one would go to.

Every poll I've seen of troops show good morale among the regular troops while, as could be expected, the NG and reserve units tend to dip a little. Point being that it's more a matter of mindset of the troop in question.

The article itself is practicing what is commonly known as projecting. No one of course is expecting mutiny but throwing such an idea out there with anecdotal, very selective support is meant to convey the idea of a "quagmire."

A closer study of wars past would be instructive for anyone taking an interest in current affairs. Nothing ever goes as planned, mistakes are made, war is dirty, and most importantly, lots of people get killed and there's always someone upset by those deaths.

This shouldn't dissuade the level headed folks from continuing on with what needs to be done. Walking away from Iraq now would hand the country over to sectarian violence the likes of which they have not seen yet, it would be a training camp for all kinds of groups (as much as it is a training ground now, at least those who flunk never come back) and state sponsors of terrorism would be given new confidence in continuing their brutality against civilzation.

That last part is particularly important. Encouraging other Islamic countries to train and support terrorists would just create more warfare, because just as Chamberlain and Daladier finally had to face the music, Islamic terror is not going away. It must be faced, and encouraging other states to ramp up their efforts will be costly to all in the long run.

Marinewing
10-01-06, 06:24 PM
Big picture versus small picture though, the enlisted often do not know what's going on. The laborer on the assembly line might know that they company is struggling on a certain product or process, but there's so much more that they simply cannot know from where they stand, that one would be a fool to buy or sell stock on the recommendation of said laborer.

Now, an objective study of that laborer from an outside view can tell a lot about the overall company. What attitudes and morale is found in the top office, will eventually display themselves in the lowest tiers, even if the CEO never meets the guys on the loading docks.

And the article states that we are losing, matter of factly. My instinct is to ask for a definition of "losing." However, I know what to expect in such terms, and what I'll get is that we're losing because. . . . whatever sounds the worst at the moment.

In actuality, terrorist groups are splintered, the leadership is gone or greatly crippled, funding is more difficult, sanctuaries are gone, Iran is on their last leg with internal strife driving them towards their current posture, N. Korea is teetering, Lebanon has broken many important ties with Syria, Egypt has just passed a law calling for elections, Libay has handed over the keys to their labs.

Now, none of this is total victory, yet, and so there are many who will continue to say that we are losing until total victory is achieved.

But such a matter of fact statement that we are losing completely robs this article of any credibility. Even if he were to posit that we were losing and then to build a reasonable case for his argument. This isn't what he does though, he makes an overly broad statement and speeds away. Kind of like that guy on SatNightLive who used to the subliminal speaking, picking up chicks and whatever.

greensideout
10-01-06, 09:08 PM
So Marinewing, do you think that the war on terrorism can be won in Iraq?

In my view, untill the change of mindset, (heart) of the people there occures it will never end. That is to say, we cannot win under the current conditions in iraq. But then, we both know that it is much larger then just Iraq.

yellowwing
10-01-06, 09:17 PM
I still am concerned with the opium funded Afghanistan opposition. $100 million can buy a lot of guns, and the folks to point them at our lads. I just don't understand why the Commander on the scene is not targeting the cash crop funding the insurgents. Officially it has been passed over as an internal matter of the Afghan govt. $500 million can buy a lot of local govt support.

I say screw it and load up a dozen C-130s with agent orange and lay waste to the opium fields. I'm sure there are plenty of motivated fly boys that would just love that job.

greensideout
10-01-06, 09:30 PM
yellowwing, if you have done your homework and I am sure that you have the poppy fields are being watched after by the Brits. Remind you of some things in history?

Marinewing
10-01-06, 10:32 PM
So Marinewing, do you think that the war on terrorism can be won in Iraq?
Yes. The war on terror will be won or lost in Iraq. That's not to say things are going perfectly in Iraq right now, but it is vitally important that we win.

Now, for the definitions of win and lose.

Losing would be walking away without someway of keeping Iraq from becoming a terrorist cesspool.

Winning is difficult to define, because there's no way to completely wipe out Islamic terror in one place in a relatively short period of time.

As it is now, it is kind of like Vietnam in as much the media is treating in a very similar fashion. Cronkite & Co. said the Vietnam conflict was lost after Tet, despite the Americans actually winning. And so it is now, without a clear cut battle to report on like Iwo Jima or the Battle of the Bulge, the very fact that the war isn't over gives the war's opponents the open door to declare the war lost.

It’s a classic case of building up a series of false premises and declaring a truth from those premises.

Fact of the matter is that we are winning, but it's not over yet. I think we can exhaust the major war fighting capabilities of the Islamofascists by fighting them in Iraq, and in that sense, we can win the war of terror in Iraq. But that doesn't mean the war would be technically over. There will still be years of cleaning up to do all over the world, especially in the Middle East.

However, Iraq will be the war that breaks their back.

If we don't "break" them in Iraq, we'll have greater, and more numerous battles to fight elsewhere down the line.

And that gets us to the general opposition of the war. I understand that the war hasn't been squeaky clean, but name for me one that has. For those who simply say that Iraq is wrong, and has nothing to do with state sponsored terrorism, that view just doesn't stand up to reality.

It really is very closely analogous to the 1930s, and the Europeans’ devastatingly weak grasp on reality. Fighting the Nazis at anytime before Europe was on their knees was too soon for a great many of them, and we have the same extreme pacifism today in that people can see 30 years of Islamic terror, and think that George Bush has personally done something to cause the current hatred, and that simply packing up our bags and going home will somehow result in a cessation of Islamic war making.

How could Europe see what was going on in Nazi Germany and think that France was to blame somehow, or Churchill was just stirring the pot? It boggles the mind that people could be blinded by their wish for peace, that they would simply wish the bad people away. Likewise, how can anyone of a rational mind see what the Islamic world is about today, and has been about, and think that there will be any cessation of their wars?

greensideout
10-01-06, 11:12 PM
Are we winning the war in Iraq? You say yes---ok---what is your timetable for the war on terrorism to end?

What I am saying is that the war will take a generation of re-education of the Muslim mind set. We have to change everything that they have been tought about the western culture. We have to teach them about freedom and they must be willing to fight for it. Untill THEY seek their freedom it will never occure.

The hate for us and Israel is embedded in their mind by their teaching at the schools from childhood. We have a lot of work to do and it will be beyond the war. I agree with you that we need to continue in the war on terrorism in Iraq---but I disagree that this stage is bringing forth a win.

Marinewing
10-01-06, 11:23 PM
I guess we're mostly in agreement.

My take on Iraq is that it is a pivotal, make or break battle in the larger war on terror. If we don't win, one way or another, then other Muslim states will be emboldened to harbor and sponsor more terrorism.

Staying with Iraq until we get it right will exhaust their warfighting capabilities.

This exhaustion however will not be the end of Islamic terrorism for reasons you've already cited. So perhaps I'm focusing more on what I think is a pivot point that can greatly shorten what will definitely a long process, one way or another.

Or to put it more simply, we're stamping out a fire that we know is going to pop up again somewhere else. But if we don't properly stamp this one particular fire out, a large portion of the forest will be subsequently engulfed. So lets finish with this worst portion of the fire, and then we'll tackle the inevitable smaller fires as they pop up.

Marinewing
10-01-06, 11:24 PM
And the whole timetable question is really not realistic. War planners always try to plan ahead, but no one was asking Churchill or FDR what their timetable was for defeating Hitler, and if it wasn't short enough, maybe they should just call the whole thing off.

My timetable? Until we're done.

yellowwing
10-01-06, 11:31 PM
There are 2 muslims in my life that I know well. Roxanna is a Tulane grad working in Houston with her Masters in Mechanical Engineering. Her folks fled Iran when the Shah was on his way out. She's is loyal to the Stars and Stripes as any other American.

The other muslim is Mustaffa. He is an Islamic refugee from the Kosovo area. He is just now getting his nutrition levels back to norm, and some meat on his bones. He really isn't that bright but he told me about the minefields when we were walking across a field to get to a job site.

Right now the Wahabbist Muslim Doctrine is to set up schools in impoverished areas of the world to teach civilization and the qualities of mankind. Of course they put their vulgar spin on the issues and keep their eyes out for suicide bomber candidates.

Roxanna would never be a good Wahabbist candidate, but malnourished Mustaffa would have been an excellent choice if you get into the mind of the enemy.

Unfortunately for us there are a two score of Mustaffa's for every Roxanna type muslim.

greensideout
10-01-06, 11:36 PM
And the whole timetable question is really not realistic. War planners always try to plan ahead, but no one was asking Churchill or FDR what their timetable was for defeating Hitler, and if it wasn't short enough, maybe they should just call the whole thing off.

My timetable? Until we're done.


A fair shot. The timetable is indeed, "Untill we're done".


Semper Fi,
GSO

Marinewing
10-01-06, 11:37 PM
Yeah, they prey upon the poor for the dirty work, but the leaders, the so called "masterminds" are typically affluent if not wealthy men with at least some education.

I guess a far Left type could say that we do the same thing, but life comes with certain rules. The smart guys get to lead, the other ones get to follow.

But the notion that we hear so much about poverty causing terrorism isn't true of course. If that were the case, Jerry Falwell would be trolling trailer parks to enlist crusaders wouldn't he? :)

yellowwing
10-01-06, 11:43 PM
Jimmy Swaggert trolled the trailer parks and did well. :banana:

Introducing the extreme religious sects is not as good idea for any side of a conversation.

cplbrooks
10-02-06, 12:08 AM
Ellie, i think you are correct.

Marinewing
10-02-06, 08:01 PM
Introducing the extreme religious sects is not as good idea for any side of a conversation.
That's usually the case, but we're at war with one of them, so there has to be some levity.

USMC-FO
10-03-06, 05:29 AM
Good discussion !!!