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thedrifter
09-11-06, 08:04 AM
Posted on Mon, Sep. 11, 2006
U.S. has lost the Anbar region of Iraq, a secret report says
The Marines' chief intelligence officer there wrote the report. Not all U.S. officials agreed.
By Thomas E. Ricks
Washington Post

WASHINGTON - The chief of intelligence for the Marine Corps in Iraq recently filed an unusual secret report concluding that the prospects for securing that country's western Anbar province are dim and that there was almost nothing the U.S. military could do to improve the political and social situation there, said several military officers and intelligence officials familiar with its contents.

The officials described Col. Pete Devlin's classified assessment of the dire state of Anbar as the first time a senior U.S. military officer has filed so negative a report from Iraq.

One Army officer summarized it as arguing that in Anbar province, "We haven't been defeated militarily, but we have been defeated politically - and that's where wars are won and lost."

The "very pessimistic" statement, as one Marine officer called it, was dated Aug. 16 and sent to Washington shortly after that, and has been discussed across the Pentagon and elsewhere in national security circles. "I don't know if it is a shock wave, but it's made people uncomfortable," said a Defense Department official who has read the report. Like others interviewed about the report, he spoke on the condition that he not be identified because of the document's sensitivity.

Devlin reports that there are no functioning Iraqi government institutions in Anbar, leaving a vacuum that has been filled by the insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq, which has become the province's most significant political force, said the Army officer, who has read the report. Another person familiar with the report said it describes Anbar as beyond repair, while a third said it concludes that the United States has lost in Anbar.

Devlin offers a series of reasons for the situation, including a shortage of U.S. and Iraqi troops, a problem that has dogged commanders since the fall of Baghdad more than three years ago, said people who have read the report. These people said he reported that not only are military operations facing a stalemate, unable to extend and sustain security beyond the perimeters of their bases, but local governments in the province have collapsed and the weak central government has almost no presence.

Those conclusions are striking because, even after years of fighting an unexpectedly difficult war in Iraq, the U.S. military has tended to maintain an optimistic view that its mission is difficult but that some progress is being made. While CIA station chiefs in Baghdad have filed a series of negative classified reports, military intelligence officials consistently have been more positive, both in their public statements and their internal reports.

Devlin, as part of the I Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward) headquarters in Iraq, has been stationed there since February, so his report is not being dismissed as the stunned assessment of a newly arrived officer. In addition, he has the reputation of being one of the Marine Corps' best intelligence officers, with a tendency to be careful and straightforward, another Marine intelligence officer said. Hence the report is being taken seriously as it is examined inside the military establishment and also by some CIA officials.

Not everyone interviewed about the report agreed with its glum findings. The Defense Department official, who worked in Iraq earlier this year, said his sense was that Anbar province is going to be troubled as long as U.S. troops are in Iraq. "Lawlessness is a way of life there," he said. As for the report, he said: "The conclusion on Anbar doesn't translate into a perspective on the entire country."

Ellie