thedrifter
09-01-06, 02:56 PM
September 01, 2006
Progress in Iraq report ‘sober’
By Gordon Lubold
Staff writer
The Pentagon has issued its gloomiest view yet of progress in Iraq, acknowledging that some of the “preconditions for civil war exist” as the level of violence continues rising in key areas.
The growth of the Iraqi security forces remains on track, there are some positive indicators that the economy is growing and oil revenue is increasing slightly.
But it’s hard for officials to put too much positive spin on the situation in Iraq, and officials who briefed the latest report acknowledged that things are not exactly looking up.
“It’s a pretty sober report,” Peter Rodman, assistant defense secretary for international security affairs told reporters on Friday.
The report comes amid increasing calls to re-think the mission in Iraq. While President Bush recently reiterated his intention to stay until the job is done, members of Congress are growing uneasy as the mid-term elections grow near. Some lawmakers, including some key Republicans, are now saying it’s time to talk about timelines for a U.S. troop withdrawal.
The “Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq” report indicates that while the number of incidents of sectarian violence has remained steady, the number of casualties caused by those incidents has risen steadily since the spring, from around 300 in April to about 500 in July.
According to one chart in the report, the number of average weekly attacks rose from about 550 per week for the period ending in February to nearly 800 per week for the period ending in mid-August.
While coalition forces attracted most of the attacks, about 63 percent, Iraqi security forces and Iraqi civilians suffered the majority of casualties, the report said. Iraqi casualties went up by 51 percent compared to the quarterly period ending in May.
“Most attacks targeting coalition forces were ‘stand-off’ attacks, not involving close-up confrontations between coalition forces and insurgents,” the report said.
The 63-page report also indicated the number of car bomb attacks had returned to summer 2005 levels.
Perhaps the most striking statistic was the fact that daily casualties increased by 1,000 per month compared to the last quarter. The Baghdad coroner’s office reported the arrival of 1,600 bodies in June and more than 1,800 in July. Most had been executed, the report said.
“This is due to increased targeting of civilians by al-Qaeda in Iraq and the increase in death squad activity,” the report said.
But what concerns Pentagon officials the most is the continued sectarian violence between warring Shiites and Sunnis extremists, clearly one of the conditions that could lead to an all-out civil war.
For example, the report blamed attacks on Shiites by al-Qaeda in Iraq and other Sunni elements for the sectarian strife, which in turn results in retaliatory attacks on Sunni civilians by “rogue” Shiite elements, the report said.
In acknowledging this rising type of violence, the Pentagon appeared to take another step toward acknowledging that the sectarian problems in Iraq could lead to an all-out civil war, even if they do not believe one yet exists.
“Conditions that could lead to civil war exist in Iraq, specifically in and around Baghdad, and concern about civil war within the Iraqi civilian population has increased in recent months.”
The report stated the definition of civil war is still being debated by intelligence experts, academics and defense analysts.
Al-Qaida remains active in Iraq, according to the report, despite the death in this quarter of terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, at the time was heralded as a significant tactical victory, if not a strategic one.
But removing the head of the snake has not appeared to defeat al-Qaida in Iraq, the report said.
Zarqawi’s death in June “was a major success for the coalition and the government of Iraq, but al-Qaida in Iraq remains able to conduct operations due to its resilient, semi-autonomous cellular structure of command and control,” the report said.
However, terrorists have not derailed the central government or its political process, according to the report, and the “center is holding.”
Iraqi security forces are assuming the lead in operations and taking over for more American and other coalition forces, Rodman said, adding that the Iraqi Ground Forces Command is expected to stand up Sept. 2.
Ellie
Progress in Iraq report ‘sober’
By Gordon Lubold
Staff writer
The Pentagon has issued its gloomiest view yet of progress in Iraq, acknowledging that some of the “preconditions for civil war exist” as the level of violence continues rising in key areas.
The growth of the Iraqi security forces remains on track, there are some positive indicators that the economy is growing and oil revenue is increasing slightly.
But it’s hard for officials to put too much positive spin on the situation in Iraq, and officials who briefed the latest report acknowledged that things are not exactly looking up.
“It’s a pretty sober report,” Peter Rodman, assistant defense secretary for international security affairs told reporters on Friday.
The report comes amid increasing calls to re-think the mission in Iraq. While President Bush recently reiterated his intention to stay until the job is done, members of Congress are growing uneasy as the mid-term elections grow near. Some lawmakers, including some key Republicans, are now saying it’s time to talk about timelines for a U.S. troop withdrawal.
The “Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq” report indicates that while the number of incidents of sectarian violence has remained steady, the number of casualties caused by those incidents has risen steadily since the spring, from around 300 in April to about 500 in July.
According to one chart in the report, the number of average weekly attacks rose from about 550 per week for the period ending in February to nearly 800 per week for the period ending in mid-August.
While coalition forces attracted most of the attacks, about 63 percent, Iraqi security forces and Iraqi civilians suffered the majority of casualties, the report said. Iraqi casualties went up by 51 percent compared to the quarterly period ending in May.
“Most attacks targeting coalition forces were ‘stand-off’ attacks, not involving close-up confrontations between coalition forces and insurgents,” the report said.
The 63-page report also indicated the number of car bomb attacks had returned to summer 2005 levels.
Perhaps the most striking statistic was the fact that daily casualties increased by 1,000 per month compared to the last quarter. The Baghdad coroner’s office reported the arrival of 1,600 bodies in June and more than 1,800 in July. Most had been executed, the report said.
“This is due to increased targeting of civilians by al-Qaeda in Iraq and the increase in death squad activity,” the report said.
But what concerns Pentagon officials the most is the continued sectarian violence between warring Shiites and Sunnis extremists, clearly one of the conditions that could lead to an all-out civil war.
For example, the report blamed attacks on Shiites by al-Qaeda in Iraq and other Sunni elements for the sectarian strife, which in turn results in retaliatory attacks on Sunni civilians by “rogue” Shiite elements, the report said.
In acknowledging this rising type of violence, the Pentagon appeared to take another step toward acknowledging that the sectarian problems in Iraq could lead to an all-out civil war, even if they do not believe one yet exists.
“Conditions that could lead to civil war exist in Iraq, specifically in and around Baghdad, and concern about civil war within the Iraqi civilian population has increased in recent months.”
The report stated the definition of civil war is still being debated by intelligence experts, academics and defense analysts.
Al-Qaida remains active in Iraq, according to the report, despite the death in this quarter of terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, at the time was heralded as a significant tactical victory, if not a strategic one.
But removing the head of the snake has not appeared to defeat al-Qaida in Iraq, the report said.
Zarqawi’s death in June “was a major success for the coalition and the government of Iraq, but al-Qaida in Iraq remains able to conduct operations due to its resilient, semi-autonomous cellular structure of command and control,” the report said.
However, terrorists have not derailed the central government or its political process, according to the report, and the “center is holding.”
Iraqi security forces are assuming the lead in operations and taking over for more American and other coalition forces, Rodman said, adding that the Iraqi Ground Forces Command is expected to stand up Sept. 2.
Ellie