thedrifter
02-02-06, 06:58 PM
February 02, 2006
Expect cuts to personnel, not weapons in ’07
By William Matthews
Times staff writer
For years, defense analysts have warned of a “budget train wreck” that would shatter weapons programs and shutter defense plants. But now it looks like personnel, not weapons will be the most likely train wreck casualties, at least initially.
In its 2007 budget, the Defense Department will propose cutting troops from all of the services except the Marine Corps, according to the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Money saved on personnel would then be spent to continue buying new airplanes, ships and ground systems.
The budget, to be delivered to Congress Feb. 6, is expected to call for cutting 33,000 reserve troops, eliminating 8,000 sailors from the Navy and trimming 6,000 personnel from the Air Force. It may also delay, and possibly preclude, a 30,000-soldier increase for the Army.
Money saved from these cuts — an estimated $6 billion or more — will help boost the 2007 defense procurement budget from $78 billion this year to about $92 billion for 2007. And that will help the services avoid cuts to coveted and costly weapons programs, such as the $250 billion Joint Strike Fighter, the $160 billion Future Combat Systems, the $70 billion F-22, the $20 billion DD(X) and the $18 billion Littoral Combat Ship, said Steven Kosiak, director of budget studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA).
But whether Congress will approve the personnel cuts remains to be seen, said Stanley Collender, an expert on the federal budget and general manager of Financial Dynamics Business Communications.
Kosiak and Collender discussed the upcoming budget Feb. 1 during CSBA’s annual briefing in advance of the defense budget’s release.
Even President Bush’s Republican allies in Congress may be reluctant to make troop cuts or go along with some of the other recommendations that are expected in the upcoming budget, Collender said. It’s an election year, and “at this point, the Republicans in Congress are more worried about their own political futures than they are about the president’s legacy,” he said.
Thus, plans to retire B-52 bombers, F-117 stealth fighters, U-2 spy planes and other weapons may be rejected by lawmakers, he said.
The entire 2007 defense budget may have to wait for a lame-duck session of Congress after the election, he said.
• The Air Force hopes to save $2.6 billion by retiring its F-117 stealth fighters, U-2 spy planes and 38 of its 94 B-52s.
• Other savings may come from retiring 50 intercontinental ballistic missiles and ending additional C-17 buys.
• And canceling plans to have a second engine supplier for the Joint Strike Fighter would save another $1.8 billion.
The Navy’s plan to increase its fleet to 313 ships — up from 281 today — seems to run counter to the cutting going on in the Air Force, but many of the Navy’s new ships will be small, relatively inexpensive Littoral Combat Ships, Kosiak said.
And to help pay for them, the Navy will again try to convince Congress to retire an aircraft carrier, reducing the carrier force from 12 to 11. Lawmakers refused to allow a carrier retirement in 2006.
Expect cuts to personnel, not weapons in ’07
By William Matthews
Times staff writer
For years, defense analysts have warned of a “budget train wreck” that would shatter weapons programs and shutter defense plants. But now it looks like personnel, not weapons will be the most likely train wreck casualties, at least initially.
In its 2007 budget, the Defense Department will propose cutting troops from all of the services except the Marine Corps, according to the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Money saved on personnel would then be spent to continue buying new airplanes, ships and ground systems.
The budget, to be delivered to Congress Feb. 6, is expected to call for cutting 33,000 reserve troops, eliminating 8,000 sailors from the Navy and trimming 6,000 personnel from the Air Force. It may also delay, and possibly preclude, a 30,000-soldier increase for the Army.
Money saved from these cuts — an estimated $6 billion or more — will help boost the 2007 defense procurement budget from $78 billion this year to about $92 billion for 2007. And that will help the services avoid cuts to coveted and costly weapons programs, such as the $250 billion Joint Strike Fighter, the $160 billion Future Combat Systems, the $70 billion F-22, the $20 billion DD(X) and the $18 billion Littoral Combat Ship, said Steven Kosiak, director of budget studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA).
But whether Congress will approve the personnel cuts remains to be seen, said Stanley Collender, an expert on the federal budget and general manager of Financial Dynamics Business Communications.
Kosiak and Collender discussed the upcoming budget Feb. 1 during CSBA’s annual briefing in advance of the defense budget’s release.
Even President Bush’s Republican allies in Congress may be reluctant to make troop cuts or go along with some of the other recommendations that are expected in the upcoming budget, Collender said. It’s an election year, and “at this point, the Republicans in Congress are more worried about their own political futures than they are about the president’s legacy,” he said.
Thus, plans to retire B-52 bombers, F-117 stealth fighters, U-2 spy planes and other weapons may be rejected by lawmakers, he said.
The entire 2007 defense budget may have to wait for a lame-duck session of Congress after the election, he said.
• The Air Force hopes to save $2.6 billion by retiring its F-117 stealth fighters, U-2 spy planes and 38 of its 94 B-52s.
• Other savings may come from retiring 50 intercontinental ballistic missiles and ending additional C-17 buys.
• And canceling plans to have a second engine supplier for the Joint Strike Fighter would save another $1.8 billion.
The Navy’s plan to increase its fleet to 313 ships — up from 281 today — seems to run counter to the cutting going on in the Air Force, but many of the Navy’s new ships will be small, relatively inexpensive Littoral Combat Ships, Kosiak said.
And to help pay for them, the Navy will again try to convince Congress to retire an aircraft carrier, reducing the carrier force from 12 to 11. Lawmakers refused to allow a carrier retirement in 2006.