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thedrifter
07-12-05, 06:06 AM
Posted on Tue, Jul. 12, 2005
Which exit course should U.S. take?
By RON HUTCHESON Knight Ridder Newspapers


Here are the military options for Iraq under discussion within the Bush administration, in Congress and at think tanks:

Rapid withdrawal

Advocates of a prompt pullout say it would be the fastest way to stop the loss of American life and avoid a Vietnam War-style quagmire. It also would force Iraqis to take control of their destiny and silence talk that the United States has imperialist goals for Iraq.

Opponents of a rapid withdrawal say that the departure of U.S. troops would doom Iraq to chaos.

“You’d have a messy civil war and almost certainly another dictator,” said Anthony Cordesman, a national security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a conservative think tank.

A power vacuum in Iraq might also invite meddling by Iraq’s neighbors, especially Iran and Turkey. Iran has close ties to Iraqi Shiite Muslims, and Turkey wants to stamp out any move toward Kurdish self-rule in Iraq that could stir up Turkish Kurds.

Others fear the emergence of a terror state, in the mold of Afghanistan under the Taliban and Osama bin Laden. It also would signal a serious defeat of the U.S. effort to bring democracy to the Middle East.

“I’m not calling for withdrawal because I think withdrawal is a panacea. It’s not,” said Christopher Preble, a national security specialist at the Cato Institute, a think tank. “There are a lot of risks. I just think the risks are less.”

Gradual withdrawal

One argument for reducing the presence of a large military force is that a smaller U.S. footprint could help dampen tacit support for anti-American violence.

Asked about the British memo suggesting U.S. and British plans to withdraw most of their troops by mid-2006, Bryan Whitman, a senior Pentagon spokesman, said U.S. officials had said repeatedly their goal was to begin reductions in 2006 if circumstances permitted.

“We look at the conditions as being the determining factor as to what the U.S. presence there needs to be, and we have contingencies for an increased presence, a steady state, and also a decreased presence,” Whitman said.

Plans for a gradual withdrawal generally include a loose timetable for removing U.S. troops without any firm deadline. The goal is to get the political benefits from withdrawal while minimizing the risks from leaving too soon.

Proponents contend that declaring an intention to leave would undercut the insurgency, increase pressure on Iraqis to take responsibility for their affairs and reassure Americans that the end is in sight.

“By keeping our troops in Iraq indefinitely, we’re asking them to resolve political and social issues that need to be resolved by Iraqis themselves. That’s unfair to the troops, their families and the country,” said Rep. Neil Abercrombie, a Hawaii Democrat, who joined a bipartisan group of lawmakers sponsoring legislation that calls for withdrawal starting in October 2006.

The proposed date is intended to give Iraqi security forces time to prepare for the handoff.

“If they can’t do it by then,” Abercrombie said, “we have to acknowledge that we’ll be mired there for a very, very long time.”

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld made the point recently that ultimately it would fall to the Iraqis themselves to defeat the insurgency.

“Insurgencies by their nature need to be defeated by the country, the people of the country,” he said in a radio interview July 5. “A foreign occupying force really can’t do that as effectively.”

Earlier he suggested that it might take up to a dozen years to put down the insurgency. Predicting the course of the insurgency has often been off the mark, forcing officials more than once to scrap plans to reduce forces.

President Bush adamantly opposes any withdrawal deadline.

“Setting an artificial timetable would send the wrong message to the Iraqis, who need to know that America will not leave before the job is done,” he said June 28 in a nationally televised speech. “It would send the wrong message to our troops, who need to know that we are serious about completing the mission. … And it would send the wrong message to the enemy, who would know that all they have to do is wait us out.”

More troops

A military escalation in Iraq may be a tough sell politically, but it’s not a new idea. Weeks before the war’s start, Army Gen. Eric Shinseki told a congressional committee that pacifying Iraq would require several hundred thousand troops.

His remarks angered Rumsfeld, who publicly rebuked him. But some members of Congress say Shinseki was right. In their view, the stakes in Iraq demand an all-out commitment.

“I’ve always believed we need more troops,” said Sen. John McCain, an Arizona Republican. “I think it’s one of the major reasons we’ve had so much difficulty.”

Escalation advocates say that commanders in Iraq need more troops to stop the infiltration of foreign jihadists and to secure areas that have been temporarily cleared of insurgents.

But sending more troops may not be a realistic option because the military is already stretched thin. Nearly half of the troops in Iraq are from National Guard and reserve units, and some soldiers are on their third tours of duty. The military is having a tough time meeting its recruitment goals for the all-volunteer force.

Former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski said the government probably would have to revive the draft to come up with the 500,000 troops that he estimates would be needed to secure Iraq. Bush and Rumsfeld have ruled out that option.

Bush says that escalation would send the wrong signal to Iraqi security forces and the insurgents.

“Sending more Americans would undermine our strategy of encouraging Iraqis to take the lead in this fight,” Bush said. “And sending more Americans would suggest that we intend to stay forever.”

Other opponents said more troops wouldn’t make much difference, because defeating the insurgents is as much a political problem as a military one.

Stay the course

Bush and his supporters point to signs of progress in Iraq as evidence that the operation is on track.

The Iraqi elections in January succeeded beyond expectations, with more than 8 million Iraqis voting. Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jafaari says he’s confident that a new constitution will be ready by the Aug. 15 target date, paving the way for ratification in October and new national elections in December.

Despite their best efforts, insurgents and terrorists have failed to provoke a civil war between rival Sunni and Shiite Muslims. Sunnis are playing a greater role in the political process, encouraging hopes that they’ll turn against the insurgency.

On the security front, U.S. military commanders say they have trained 169,000 Iraqi security forces. They refuse to say how many of them are ready to fight on their own, though, and independent estimates range from 2,500 to 40,000.

Cordesman, who supports Bush’s approach, conceded that Iraqi forces “have major problems with leadership, desertions and effectiveness.”

Administration officials say the only missing ingredients now are time and patience.

“Iraq slowly gets better every day,” Gen. George Casey, the top commander in Iraq, told a Senate committee last month. “I am more convinced than ever that our mission there is both realistic and achievable.”

Many of Bush’s Democratic critics have proposed alternatives that are little more than variations of the president’s approach. Most call for more international help, but other countries have shown no interest in sending troops to Iraq.

Although Bush can point to signs of progress, his critics can find plenty of evidence that Iraq is heading in the wrong direction. Foreign extremists continue to pour into the country, the insurgency is as strong as ever, and the death toll continues to mount.

Iraq’s economy is in a shambles. Unemployment for young men is estimated at 40 percent in Sunni areas. Annual per capita income dropped from $137 in 2003 to $77 last year. Electricity remains sporadic. And only about 37 percent of Iraqi families are connected to a sewage network, down from 75 percent in the 1980s.

Although opinions are splintered over how to proceed in Iraq, there’s widespread agreement that a victory for the insurgents would be a big blow to American credibility and a boost for the morale of Islamic extremists. No one seems to expect the emergence of a stable, secure American-style democracy anytime soon.

“We can’t afford to lose, but we don’t know what we’re going to win,” said Sen. Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat. “It might be very little.”

Ellie

mrbsox
07-12-05, 06:36 AM
"WE WILL STAY THE COURSE"

And that should be the end of it.
We WILL exit when the job is done. That will be (in my opinion) when the Iraqi people have the ability to rule and protect themselves, and prosper as a nation.
That doesn't mean turn them into a 'Superpower' or provide for their 'agression' towards another. SELF DEFENSE is part of what our Constitution is based on.

ANYBODY with their eyes open should be able to see what would happen to the country, should we (the coalition) pull out too soon. The place would be over run with these 'fundamentalists' that would remove any hint of the freedoms our men and women have died to provide. They MUST be strong enough to prevent/control that, as THEY see fit.

And then once we're out.... we should STAY out.

cknow
07-12-05, 08:30 AM
I agree..... The United States needs to show some Freaking RESOLVE.

yellowwing
07-12-05, 09:25 AM
Finish the job until they can stand on their own. Six months or 6 years. Leaving them high and dry would be a black mark on us for another generation.

Some can b*tch and complain how we got there, but we are there and we owe it to them and ourselves to finish the job.

Joseph P Carey
07-12-05, 11:07 AM
Unfortunately gentleman, we WILL be betrayed again. And, it is our fault for having no balls!

I know this sounds pessimistic, not my usual upbeat self, but I see it all happening again.

The same people that brought our schools down to below a third world standard are again standing tall and shouting with the same fervor of our soldiers oppressing, causing mayhem and murder. They make half truths speak like the Gospel, but ignore the reality of what is there. And, they find ways for our children to think it is wrong to defend the USA! And we say nothing, it is too much troble to write to the local newspaper, or to go to a town meeting.

Gentlemen, it is that same old dance, and it is the politician in Congress that is moving to their music. It is the same old tactic to nibble away at the good that is being done, and inflate the small and the most insignificant things, the little malignant in a healthy body of spirited men and women, and they keep expanding upon those little things until they are bigger than life. And, we say nothing!

Four Soldiers mistreat Prisoners, it is a systematic thing they say, and all soldiers do the same according to them. The wounded enemy insurgent blows himself up, killing Soldiers assisting him with his wounds, and nothing is said, but a Marine kills a wounded insurgent that appears to be faking his injuries, and he is a horrible monster. The insurgents cut the head off of a poor Korean interpreter, and they are freedom fighters, what do you expect? But, to take a photo of Saddam Hussein being checked by a doctor is demeaning. This is their way! But, we say nothing!

The same schools that could not teach Johnny to read and to write so as he could get a job in today's market, are now denying the US Military the right to telephone solicit recruits from their former students, because it is an immoral war. And we say nothing!

Even during World War Two, the Peace Movement was not in favor of a fight against the Axis Powers, until Hitler crossed his ally, the Soviet Union, and than their tune changed in the blink of an eye. We said nothing!

In Vietnam, The Congress sold us, and the Vietnamese People, out. What makes you think they will not do it again? Because, we say nothing!

It is no wonder why people do not believe in the USA, but we are only to blame. We send the same scum to Congress that are willing to defame our military, and to decry what a horrible thing it is to beat up poor insurgents. We send the people to Congress that think nothing of releasing confidential reports that place our soldiers and Marines in harms way. We send the people to Congress that give aid and comfort to our enemies. We do not vote as a rule, so again, we say nothing!

Yes, we are to be blamed for what is happening, because we do not speak up the way the Commies and the Anarchist do. We are not the squeaking wheels! We are not out there letting the truth be known! We are not out there fighting the lies that are said! We are the blame, and shame on us, because it will all happen again!

Maybe, Marines are just too damned timid to speak out for their country after all! As much as I hate Kerry, a Sailor, a traitor, a collaborator with the Communists, he at least had balls enough to go to the streets and say something for his cause. Maybe, we don't deserve the reputation we have as Marines, after all, that was when we WERE Marines, now we are tired old men afraid of our own shadows! Maybe there should be an expiration date on the title of a United States Marine!

hrscowboy
07-12-05, 11:22 AM
WTF This Marine will sound off in a heartbeat no matter how old i am and i am dang sure not afraid of my own shadow. I may be old but i damn sure aint going to give up nothing with out a fight and a verbal ass chewing followed with an ass whipping. As far as being timid just come here on my ranch and see just how timid i am.. I will fight at the drop of a hat and my sons will too they proved that buy going to the sand box just like i did in Vietnam. If you want change get up off your arses and vote the damn congressman out that have been there for more than 3 terms and maybe we will get change, but until the people quit turning a blind eye at these jokers it will always be the same.. enuff said.

Joseph P Carey
07-12-05, 12:03 PM
HRS,

Do you think I am wrong? Do you think that for the most part all of these people are out there fighting for what is right? Do you think that some of these armchair Marines are hearing people talk in Super Markets of the same lies being spread as a truth, and do you think they speak up and say something?

Hell No! They will not! They are too embarrassed to say something! They are too domesticated to speak up and to tell a person that they are full of crap! They are geldings now, when once they were stallions! They are too afraid to speak their minds in public, except they become tigers when they go to the safe confines of their home where no one will hear them.

They do not vote because they think that their vote means nothing, after all, it is just one vote! They are too afraid, or too lazy, to go to a town meetings and to step up to the mike, because they feel they will be embarrassed. Well the embarrassing thing is that when they remain quiet, people think that they are in agreement with the other side.

The voice of a true believer is the most powerful weapon I know of, and unless someone hears that voice, that weapon is as useless as tits on a bull!

Perhaps I insult some of my fellow Marines to come back to life, and to show some of that passion they once had, some of that desire that was theirs in years gone by, AND TO BE SOME OF THOSE FEW GOOD MEN!

eddief
07-12-05, 01:24 PM
Joseph P Carey = asshat

Joseph P Carey
07-12-05, 01:30 PM
Originally posted by eddief
Joseph P Carey = asshat

Drop on by any old time Eddie, I will be glad to discuss the price of rice in the winter with you! Bring your makeup kit, you'll need it!

eddief
07-12-05, 01:41 PM
Originally posted by Joseph P Carey


Drop on by any old time Eddie, I will be glad to discuss the price of rice in the winter with you! Bring your makeup kit, you'll need it!

Why are you such a ****ing *******? You come on here insulting good people, and then you get ****ed off when you get a reaction to your BS.

As for your threats, anybody can be a badass on the internet.

outlaw3179
07-12-05, 01:44 PM
Fighting on the internet is like competing in the Special Olympics.....even if you win.. YOUR STILL A RETARD!.

but hey ..carry on gents ..

eddief
07-12-05, 01:53 PM
Originally posted by outlaw3179
Fighting on the internet is like competing in the Special Olympics.....even if you win.. YOUR STILL A RETARD!.

but hey ..carry on gents ..

I'm done having my say about his attitude.

Joseph P Carey
07-12-05, 02:08 PM
Originally posted by eddief


I'm done having my say about his attitude.

Eddie,

You were done before you started, Eddie. Have you even read what I had to say? Or, did I just strike a nerve deep in you?

When I get around to insulting you Eddie, I'll do it in a hundred words or more, and you will not know whether to thank me, or what, when I am done!

thedrifter
07-12-05, 02:31 PM
I will be watching this POST...

Everyone has a Right to their OWN OPINION...
You might not agree with theirs...but we learn to Repect their Rights, Just like we Respect Yours...

You can state Your Reasons, but I will NOT TOLERATE INSULTS to other Members ON THESE FORUMS, Just because they will not Bend Your Way..
Take it to PM or Email...

Ellie

eddief
07-12-05, 03:48 PM
Originally posted by thedrifter
I will be watching this POST...

Everyone has a Right to their OWN OPINION...
You might not agree with theirs...but we learn to Repect their Rights, Just like we Respect Yours...

You can state Your Reasons, but I will NOT TOLERATE INSULTS to other Members ON THESE FORUMS, Just because they will not Bend Your Way..
Take it to PM or Email...

Ellie

Sorry, it won't happen again. I'll just steer clear of Joseph.

thedrifter
07-12-05, 04:44 PM
Thank You eddief !

I was not singling out anyone...
It was a broad statement for All, to understand...


Ellie

Osotogary
07-12-05, 06:54 PM
Effort to diffuse #27

Ellie,
Speaking of broad statements ...what ever happenened to the wake up cuties? I don't wake up as often as I used to.

thedrifter
07-12-05, 06:56 PM
I will get back to them Gary..

Was a little busy last week getting baby shower ready for my future Grandson

Ellie