thedrifter
01-12-05, 06:10 AM
The Coming War with Iran
January 11, 2005
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by Tom Marzullo
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Moving your blinders aside to consider this piece is important, perhaps crucial. The first issue for consideration is that for over the past quarter century Iran has been prosecuting a mostly one-sided war with America, mainly through proxies. Looking forward from the 1979 Iranian hostage situation to today’s mass, open recruitment of Iranians to fight against the United States and coalition countries in Iraq and elsewhere, it will seem difficult for later generations to understand how we as a people could have failed to see this long brewing conflict coming at us. The Nazis in the last century painted a picture that was clearer only in that, having western roots, it did not have the cultural and language disconnects the Iranian situation presents.
Perhaps a bit of direct comparison might be helpful in clearing your perception of what is currently being engaged in.
As I write this, there are Iranian youngsters being openly recruited, indoctrinated, trained and transported to Iraq to act as human bombs against Americans and others.
Imagine the outcry in the ‘mainstream’ media and especially ‘Old Europe’ if our government were to similarly recruit our own citizens to suicide while murdering Iranian civilians, especially as we are ostensibly at peace with that country. The outcry would be raucous to say the very least… yet there is nary a blink past the first casual whisper at this identical process being carried out in plain sight in Iran.
Now think about what would occur if America were to play host to a different flavor of religiously-motivated terror groups that attacked mosques inside and outside our borders, slaughtering the Muslim faithful at worship… while both overtly and covertly supplying these groups with funding, weapons and training as well as a safe haven from which to operate. Would this revelation merit a simple one-time mention on page 87 in the New York Times or Washington Post? Would the UN minions briefly decry the action (after much prompting) but do nothing of substance?
While I know that the proposition above may produce some snickering in readers on either side of the political divide, these are the very activities that the Iranians have engaged in for over two decades and in the past two years have openly sought to make themselves the preeminent safe haven for other Islamist terror groups, beyond their puppet Hamas and the affiliated terror groups it has spun off, supported and deployed.
Now that you have been shown a comparison of apples-to-apples, let us turn to the political and military situation and its implications inherent in the Middle East today. What follows is a broad-stroke discussion of what the options are for the Iranian Shiia theocracy in the short term.
With Iran on the verge of becoming a nuclear-capable regional power… aided by its North Korean developed missile technology and know-how courtesy of Pakistan’s nuclear community and intelligence organizations, their history of covert and overt military actions against the US and allies becomes an issue of great concern.
The Iranians have been engaged in both open and clandestine warfare against Iraq virtually since the birth of their Shiia theocracy, but after the fall of the Baathists in Iraq, there is an important new political opportunity now presenting itself that is likely to lead to very divergent outcomes.
That opportunity is rooted in the American efforts to establish the first open elections in what could reasonably be developed from a long-enslaved Iraqi population where the Shiia clearly have the bulge population-wise. This presents a chance to co-opt the nascent Iraqi attempt at self-government that will be fairly bullet proof from later American intervention since we are already committed to its birthing. If the Iranians succeed in gaining control of the Iraqi government they can then dictate policies favorable to an actively Islamist Iran while providing a potent political cover for Iran’s offensive WMD program as well as derailing the increasing likelihood of open military conflict with America. That conflict is likely to include a serious effort at secretively promoting an internal revolt against the highly unpopular and coercive Iranian theocratic regime.
So in essence what we can project is a clear choice of situations for Iran, either the takeover of Iraq or an American-supported fledgling representative government hostile to Iran’s theocracy that must be actively destabilized lest they provide a launching point for Iran’s counter-revolutionary groups and/or direct military actions, primarily American/Iraqi.
Therefore it is to Iran’s advantage to quietly subvert Sunni participation in the formerly Baathist stronghold that is now the Islamist terrorist-dominated triangle. Every Sunni vote subverted or denied increases the Shiia majorities hold on voting representation… therefore the pervasive terror campaign that is being aided by the Baathist remnants and foreign Islamist groups using increasingly cruel methods of traditional oppression is well underway.
It is the most pressing interest of all of these terror groups in the region that are supported by what can be defined either religious and/or essentially traditional potentate-like repressive regimes to destroy or subvert the attempt at Iraqi representative self governance, the only question remaining is what political entity will be best positioned to dominate the new Iraqi government.
Failing to obtain the political leverage in Iraq will force ever more overt military intervention by the Iranians in an effort to disrupt the formation of a durable Iraqi government that favors or is at least truly neutral towards the West. These actions are highly likely to bring about an initially clandestine American effort to enable the Iranian people to overthrow that theocracy.
In a reversal of the role played by the US during the Vietnam War, this time it would be the Americans who would operate from supposedly neutral territory to conduct raids and foment revolt… and this action is extremely likely to prompt an increasingly set of overt Iranian military responses leading directly to a state of war, declarations or no. For the dictatorial Mullahs, there is little other choice if they wish to keep the reins of power… for they understand all too well that much of Iran’s youth is already seething with resentment against their oppressive rule.
The Iranian’s must succeed in gaining the preeminent political position in Iraq or risk starting a war (with or without a nuclear exchange) that will invariably lead to their overthrow for their conventional forces are weak, their rule unpopular and the economic system in shambles and a superior alternative to being forever yoked to the Mullah’s rickety domestic leadership can easily be presented.
Tom Marzullo
© 2005, Tom Marzullo All rights reserved.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tom Marzullo is a columnist/physicist/educator who is a former US Army Special Forces combat soldier and US Navy Submariner with special operations experience in both services. He was the leader of the Internet-based effort by Special Forces veterans that debunked the false CNN/TIME magazine nerve gas story, 'Tailwind' and has provided testimony before the US Senate on military and intelligence matters. He resides in Colorado.
Ellie
January 11, 2005
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by Tom Marzullo
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Moving your blinders aside to consider this piece is important, perhaps crucial. The first issue for consideration is that for over the past quarter century Iran has been prosecuting a mostly one-sided war with America, mainly through proxies. Looking forward from the 1979 Iranian hostage situation to today’s mass, open recruitment of Iranians to fight against the United States and coalition countries in Iraq and elsewhere, it will seem difficult for later generations to understand how we as a people could have failed to see this long brewing conflict coming at us. The Nazis in the last century painted a picture that was clearer only in that, having western roots, it did not have the cultural and language disconnects the Iranian situation presents.
Perhaps a bit of direct comparison might be helpful in clearing your perception of what is currently being engaged in.
As I write this, there are Iranian youngsters being openly recruited, indoctrinated, trained and transported to Iraq to act as human bombs against Americans and others.
Imagine the outcry in the ‘mainstream’ media and especially ‘Old Europe’ if our government were to similarly recruit our own citizens to suicide while murdering Iranian civilians, especially as we are ostensibly at peace with that country. The outcry would be raucous to say the very least… yet there is nary a blink past the first casual whisper at this identical process being carried out in plain sight in Iran.
Now think about what would occur if America were to play host to a different flavor of religiously-motivated terror groups that attacked mosques inside and outside our borders, slaughtering the Muslim faithful at worship… while both overtly and covertly supplying these groups with funding, weapons and training as well as a safe haven from which to operate. Would this revelation merit a simple one-time mention on page 87 in the New York Times or Washington Post? Would the UN minions briefly decry the action (after much prompting) but do nothing of substance?
While I know that the proposition above may produce some snickering in readers on either side of the political divide, these are the very activities that the Iranians have engaged in for over two decades and in the past two years have openly sought to make themselves the preeminent safe haven for other Islamist terror groups, beyond their puppet Hamas and the affiliated terror groups it has spun off, supported and deployed.
Now that you have been shown a comparison of apples-to-apples, let us turn to the political and military situation and its implications inherent in the Middle East today. What follows is a broad-stroke discussion of what the options are for the Iranian Shiia theocracy in the short term.
With Iran on the verge of becoming a nuclear-capable regional power… aided by its North Korean developed missile technology and know-how courtesy of Pakistan’s nuclear community and intelligence organizations, their history of covert and overt military actions against the US and allies becomes an issue of great concern.
The Iranians have been engaged in both open and clandestine warfare against Iraq virtually since the birth of their Shiia theocracy, but after the fall of the Baathists in Iraq, there is an important new political opportunity now presenting itself that is likely to lead to very divergent outcomes.
That opportunity is rooted in the American efforts to establish the first open elections in what could reasonably be developed from a long-enslaved Iraqi population where the Shiia clearly have the bulge population-wise. This presents a chance to co-opt the nascent Iraqi attempt at self-government that will be fairly bullet proof from later American intervention since we are already committed to its birthing. If the Iranians succeed in gaining control of the Iraqi government they can then dictate policies favorable to an actively Islamist Iran while providing a potent political cover for Iran’s offensive WMD program as well as derailing the increasing likelihood of open military conflict with America. That conflict is likely to include a serious effort at secretively promoting an internal revolt against the highly unpopular and coercive Iranian theocratic regime.
So in essence what we can project is a clear choice of situations for Iran, either the takeover of Iraq or an American-supported fledgling representative government hostile to Iran’s theocracy that must be actively destabilized lest they provide a launching point for Iran’s counter-revolutionary groups and/or direct military actions, primarily American/Iraqi.
Therefore it is to Iran’s advantage to quietly subvert Sunni participation in the formerly Baathist stronghold that is now the Islamist terrorist-dominated triangle. Every Sunni vote subverted or denied increases the Shiia majorities hold on voting representation… therefore the pervasive terror campaign that is being aided by the Baathist remnants and foreign Islamist groups using increasingly cruel methods of traditional oppression is well underway.
It is the most pressing interest of all of these terror groups in the region that are supported by what can be defined either religious and/or essentially traditional potentate-like repressive regimes to destroy or subvert the attempt at Iraqi representative self governance, the only question remaining is what political entity will be best positioned to dominate the new Iraqi government.
Failing to obtain the political leverage in Iraq will force ever more overt military intervention by the Iranians in an effort to disrupt the formation of a durable Iraqi government that favors or is at least truly neutral towards the West. These actions are highly likely to bring about an initially clandestine American effort to enable the Iranian people to overthrow that theocracy.
In a reversal of the role played by the US during the Vietnam War, this time it would be the Americans who would operate from supposedly neutral territory to conduct raids and foment revolt… and this action is extremely likely to prompt an increasingly set of overt Iranian military responses leading directly to a state of war, declarations or no. For the dictatorial Mullahs, there is little other choice if they wish to keep the reins of power… for they understand all too well that much of Iran’s youth is already seething with resentment against their oppressive rule.
The Iranian’s must succeed in gaining the preeminent political position in Iraq or risk starting a war (with or without a nuclear exchange) that will invariably lead to their overthrow for their conventional forces are weak, their rule unpopular and the economic system in shambles and a superior alternative to being forever yoked to the Mullah’s rickety domestic leadership can easily be presented.
Tom Marzullo
© 2005, Tom Marzullo All rights reserved.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tom Marzullo is a columnist/physicist/educator who is a former US Army Special Forces combat soldier and US Navy Submariner with special operations experience in both services. He was the leader of the Internet-based effort by Special Forces veterans that debunked the false CNN/TIME magazine nerve gas story, 'Tailwind' and has provided testimony before the US Senate on military and intelligence matters. He resides in Colorado.
Ellie