thedrifter
11-03-04, 06:28 AM
Heads I Win, Tails You Lose
Novermber 2, 2004
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by Tom Marzullo
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Much has been made about Osama Bin Laden’s recent video and the previous one as well. As has already been pointed out, it was a virtual historic inevitability since the Islamists must make some political hay from our presidential election, as it is their norm of PSYOPS behavior.
However, it does contain a minor disadvantage/trap of its own since it also contains a specific threat against those states that support the reelection of the president.
Historically, threats from this level of Islamist leadership are carried out… and since there is now a list of areas to be struck, albeit developed on very short notice indeed, we can expect a hit in the near term if Bush wins reelection.
Strategically this is very sound planning as playing defense in an unconventional conflict is always very difficult indeed since the sheer number your assets requiring protection always exceed your forces/ability to cover them adequately. In the case of the United States, this is especially true since we are the most technologically advanced and therefore most vulnerable to strikes at some particularly interconnected point(s) along with a populace unused to and psychologically vulnerable to the death, destruction and disruption they are designed to cause.
This specific advantage is temporary, since every day that passes allows the defense to get its act together. This would lead to a higher likelihood that the strikes following a Bush win would be fairly close to the election.
The other advantage of striking quickly is to clearly demonstrate the power of the Islamists to punish America at will. Given the level and types of intelligence reports regarding preparations that we have been seeing over that past couple of years, it is also reasonable to expect that this groundwork has already been laid.
Because target surveillance will become very difficult in the aftermath of another domestic strike, the target portfolios must be drawn up well ahead of time. Having such information allows the Islamist cells to then direct their future strikes without having to telegraph which sites are selected by having to institute sustained surveillance.
Therefore, once we are struck we can expect a flurry of fairly effective strikes.
In "The Art of War," Sun Tzsu properly explained that every battle is won or lost before it has begun and while the Islamists may be 12th century fanatics from an ethical perspective we can expect them to have heeded this essential dictum.
The other military aspect to be considered is the need to ‘bring superior forces to bear’ (AKA "hit ‘em where they ain’t") that is the very essence of an unconventional/guerrilla campaign.
So once this cycle starts, we can expect to be taking some hits with a limited ability to strike back effectively, except in those cases where the terrorist infrastructure has been compromised. Common sense tells us that this cannot be in place across the board as if that were the operational case we would have already rolled them up since the political and human costs of leaving them in place would be extreme. More likely is that some few suspect groups have been detected and are being observed to ID other cells on the same command and control circuits.
It is reasonable to expect that whichever way the election goes we get our next dose of the harsh reality of an unconventional war on our own shores sooner or later.
The media’s feigned surprise, hysteria and usual hype that will follow this virtually inevitable attack is also to be expected. ‘Chicken Little’ and ‘Henny Penny’ outfits should be the uniform of the day in the media, though we all instinctively know that the various bloated egos with blow-dried coifs would never stand for such appropriate costuming.
We as a nation have to wake up and smell the coffee someday… and this is shaping up as another opportunity to do just that.
Tom Marzullo
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tom Marzullo is a columnist/physicist/educator who is a former US Army Special Forces combat soldier and US Navy Submariner with special operations experience in both services. He was the leader of the Internet-based effort by Special Forces veterans that debunked the false CNN/TIME magazine nerve gas story, 'Tailwind' and has provided testimony before the US Senate on military and intelligence matters. He resides in Colorado.
SUN TZU ON THE ART OF WAR
THE OLDEST MILITARY TREATISE IN THE WORLD
http://www.chinapage.com/sunzi-e.html
http://www.mensnewsdaily.com/archive/m-n/marzullo/2004/marzullo110204.htm
Ellie
Novermber 2, 2004
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by Tom Marzullo
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Much has been made about Osama Bin Laden’s recent video and the previous one as well. As has already been pointed out, it was a virtual historic inevitability since the Islamists must make some political hay from our presidential election, as it is their norm of PSYOPS behavior.
However, it does contain a minor disadvantage/trap of its own since it also contains a specific threat against those states that support the reelection of the president.
Historically, threats from this level of Islamist leadership are carried out… and since there is now a list of areas to be struck, albeit developed on very short notice indeed, we can expect a hit in the near term if Bush wins reelection.
Strategically this is very sound planning as playing defense in an unconventional conflict is always very difficult indeed since the sheer number your assets requiring protection always exceed your forces/ability to cover them adequately. In the case of the United States, this is especially true since we are the most technologically advanced and therefore most vulnerable to strikes at some particularly interconnected point(s) along with a populace unused to and psychologically vulnerable to the death, destruction and disruption they are designed to cause.
This specific advantage is temporary, since every day that passes allows the defense to get its act together. This would lead to a higher likelihood that the strikes following a Bush win would be fairly close to the election.
The other advantage of striking quickly is to clearly demonstrate the power of the Islamists to punish America at will. Given the level and types of intelligence reports regarding preparations that we have been seeing over that past couple of years, it is also reasonable to expect that this groundwork has already been laid.
Because target surveillance will become very difficult in the aftermath of another domestic strike, the target portfolios must be drawn up well ahead of time. Having such information allows the Islamist cells to then direct their future strikes without having to telegraph which sites are selected by having to institute sustained surveillance.
Therefore, once we are struck we can expect a flurry of fairly effective strikes.
In "The Art of War," Sun Tzsu properly explained that every battle is won or lost before it has begun and while the Islamists may be 12th century fanatics from an ethical perspective we can expect them to have heeded this essential dictum.
The other military aspect to be considered is the need to ‘bring superior forces to bear’ (AKA "hit ‘em where they ain’t") that is the very essence of an unconventional/guerrilla campaign.
So once this cycle starts, we can expect to be taking some hits with a limited ability to strike back effectively, except in those cases where the terrorist infrastructure has been compromised. Common sense tells us that this cannot be in place across the board as if that were the operational case we would have already rolled them up since the political and human costs of leaving them in place would be extreme. More likely is that some few suspect groups have been detected and are being observed to ID other cells on the same command and control circuits.
It is reasonable to expect that whichever way the election goes we get our next dose of the harsh reality of an unconventional war on our own shores sooner or later.
The media’s feigned surprise, hysteria and usual hype that will follow this virtually inevitable attack is also to be expected. ‘Chicken Little’ and ‘Henny Penny’ outfits should be the uniform of the day in the media, though we all instinctively know that the various bloated egos with blow-dried coifs would never stand for such appropriate costuming.
We as a nation have to wake up and smell the coffee someday… and this is shaping up as another opportunity to do just that.
Tom Marzullo
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tom Marzullo is a columnist/physicist/educator who is a former US Army Special Forces combat soldier and US Navy Submariner with special operations experience in both services. He was the leader of the Internet-based effort by Special Forces veterans that debunked the false CNN/TIME magazine nerve gas story, 'Tailwind' and has provided testimony before the US Senate on military and intelligence matters. He resides in Colorado.
SUN TZU ON THE ART OF WAR
THE OLDEST MILITARY TREATISE IN THE WORLD
http://www.chinapage.com/sunzi-e.html
http://www.mensnewsdaily.com/archive/m-n/marzullo/2004/marzullo110204.htm
Ellie