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thedrifter
06-16-04, 07:37 AM
06-12-2004

From the Editor:

Stand by to Move Out





By Ed Offley



If I were the mayor of El Paso, Tex., I’d already have the champagne on ice. Likewise if I were the Chamber of Commerce president in Colorado Springs, Colo., or the council chairman in Pierce County, Wash. Or several other cities across the country that call themselves “Army towns.”



Hundreds of mayors, members of Congress and local business executives from coast to coast are dreading the 2005 military Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) hearings – a process that Pentagon insiders and independent experts say will lead to the closing of as many as 100 military bases in the United States. At the same time, a handful of large U.S. Army bases here at home are all but guaranteed to see a substantial expansion of their facilities from an infusion of combat units and thousands of additional soldiers and their family members transferring in from overseas.



Six months ago, President Bush confirmed that the Pentagon was beginning a comprehensive review of overseas basing (See “The Military World Turned Upside Down,” DefenseWatch, Dec. 4, 2003). Bush’s one-page statement announced an “ongoing review of our overseas [military] force posture,” adding:



“Since the end of the Cold War, the once-familiar threats facing our nation, our friends, and our allies have given way to the less predictable dangers associated with rogue nations, global terrorism, and weapons of mass destruction. We have been actively transforming our defenses to address these changes. While we continue to make progress in the transformation of our uniformed military, it remains for us to realign the global posture of our forces to better address these new challenges.”



Obscured by the 60th anniversary of D-Day, the ongoing insurgency in Iraq and the passing of former President Reagan, details of the military moves are beginning to emerge. They include:



The New York Times on June 4, citing confidential sources, revealed that the Defense Department plans to transfer the two remaining Army divisions in Europe back to the continental United States. Both the 1st Armored Division and 1st Infantry Division currently have their divisional headquarters and two of three combat brigades permanently based in Germany under the U.S. V Corps. Reassignment of the two divisions alone will mean about 25,000 American soldiers and their family members will soon be awaiting orders for PCS moves stateside. The plan calls for assigning a solitary “Stryker” light brigade to Germany.



The numbers of departing troops will likely be higher than that. A Congressional Budget Office assessment last month of the U.S. military’s overseas basing situation noted that in addition to the four combat brigades in Germany, another 34,000 soldiers belong to combat support and combat service support units that operate with the two divisions but are not part of their formal TOEs. It is likely most, if not all of them, will be heading back to CONUS as well.



Meanwhile, the Pentagon last week confirmed it plans to remove around 12,000 soldiers from South Korea as part of a separate but parallel review of basing on the Korean peninsula. One brigade combat team from the 2nd Infantry Division has been ordered to Iraq for a 12-month occupation assignment, and officials have said the unit will not be returning to Korea after the tour ends. Another 7,000-8,000 troops are also being earmarked for transfer to bases in the United States, officials told The Washington Post.



Other major military moves are planned or under study, officials say. During a trip through Asia last week, Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld told the Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun that unspecified new “arrangements” are being prepared to lessen the presence of U.S. military units on the island of Okinawa, home to the 3rd Marine Division, Kadena Air Force Base and other U.S. military units. There has been speculation the Pentagon is moving toward an accord with Tokyo to transfer some of the Okinawa-based personnel to an unidentified base elsewhere in Japan.



Moreover, the Pentagon is moving to beef up its naval presence in the Pacific by transferring submarines and support ships to Guam, and is mulling moving a West Coast-based carrier battle group to Pearl Harbor. Hawaii. And a separate news report last week indicated Australia and the United States will soon announce the creation of a large-scale maneuver training base in northern Australia that will provide both training opportunities and a bare-bones “platform” should the Pentagon need to stage forces to that part of the Pacific.



But it is the Army moves that will thrill a select few cities that host major Army maneuver bases in their communities. A numerical equivalent of three Army divisions will soon be packing up for home, wherever that is.



Here’s a hint: The Pentagon released a report on existing base infrastructure in March as a prelude to the 2005 BRAC process. In a chapter analyzing the military’s theoretical ability to “reconstitute” the force to its size in 1987 (when the Army had 18 instead of 10 divisions), planners identified 11 existing Army bases and the “vacancies” they have for hosting additional brigades with their existing infrastructure. They are (light brigades marked with an asterisk): Fort Carson, Colo. (1), Fort Drum, N.Y. (1*), Fort Lewis, Wash. (1), Fort Wainwright, Alaska (1*), Schofield Barracks, Hi. (1*), Fort Bliss, Tex. (4), and Fort Polk, La., (1*).



A number of major Army reforms are now converging. The service is moving to adopt a unit manning cycle that stresses personnel stability in the ranks rather than the career needs of individual soldiers. It is proceeding with its new “homesteading” plan by which soldiers and their families can expect to stay at a particular base for longer parts of their career. Because of the volatility of the post-Cold War world, particularly across the Islamic crescent that runs from Africa to the western Pacific, the Pentagon is reallocating forces for a more agile capability to react to unexpected crises.



In the short term, this means a lot of soldiers assigned overseas should prepare to pack up and move out. For a small number of Army communities in the United States, it’s time for some cautious optimism about the incoming storm of BRAC 2005.



Ed Offley is Editor of DefenseWatch. He can be reached at dweditor@yahoo.com. Please send Feedback responses to dwfeedback@yahoo.com. © 2004 Ed Offley.


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Ellie