thedrifter
06-13-04, 06:22 AM
06-08-2004
Guest Column: War with North Korea Is Possible
By Robert W. Koontz
According to nuclear weapons experts, North Korea now has the capability to produce somewhere between five and ten nuclear weapons each year – using weapons-grade plutonium the North Koreans indigenously produce.
North Korea has been found to have exported at least two tons of nuclear materials to Libya. While this nuclear material was not in a form that could be used immediately to make nuclear weapons, and would require much and very sophisticated processing, the fact remains that North Korea has been found to have exported nuclear materials to a Middle East country.
North Korea has threatened to export nuclear weapons. While North Korea is known for its hyperbolic rhetoric, this threat cannot be ignored in light of the fact that North Korea has been found to have already exported nuclear materials to Libya.
North Korea already exports long-range ballistic missile and WMD technology to Iran, Syria and other Middle Eastern states, including Yemen. These long-range ballistic missiles have provided a way for Iran to deliver weapons of mass destruction against Israel and against U.S. and allied forces in the Persian Gulf and Middle East areas, including Iraq and Kuwait. These WMD-capable missiles can also reach Saudi Arabia.
About six weeks ago, in mid-April, Vice President Dick Cheney essentially warned the North Koreans that time was running out for them to act to stop their nuclear weapons program. The exact words that Cheney used were, “Time is not on our side.”
North Korea recently indicated that the United States flew almost 200 intelligence missions over its country during the month of May. This may not be a precisely accurate number, but the fact remains that it is possible that the United States is gathering intelligence at a very stepped-up rate over North Korea. North Korea has recently indicated that it has a strong belief that United States is preparing to attack.
There appears to have been significant diplomatic activity in the last few months that has centered around what might be an almost last-ditch attempt to bring the North Korean situation to a peaceful conclusion. Also, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-Il, visited with leaders in China recently.
Historically, China has been North Korea’s patron, and North Korea has historically been viewed as a surrogate for the PRC. But, of late this kind of thinking has not been invoked. China provides North Korea with a very large amount of food and energy resources and could strongly influence or even force North Korea into giving up its nuclear weapons program if China would decide to do so. That is conventional thinking, at least.
Based on this and other sensitive information, my conclusion is that war with North Korea could occur by the end of the summer or in that time period. Many of the U.S. forces needed for this are already in place, and more are being dispatched in surge.
I also conclude that such a war would quickly escalate to a nuclear conflict and also would see the use of chemical and bacteriological agents after we first use conventional weapons to attack North Korea’s nuclear sites.
Seoul could be lost, as could Tokyo. But as many as 100 U.S. nuclear weapons might be used to keep this from happening.
To forestall such a war, the United States and its allies must pressure China to stop this war from happening. China can rein in North Korea with a single phone call.
If war comes, it is a war that Jiang Zemin and the central communist party figures of China want and have engineered – to weaken the United States and put China in a better position to take back Taiwan. Jiang Zemin controls the army even though he is no longer president of China.
Bob Koontz is a Ph.D. experimental nuclear physicist and former member of U.S. intelligence. His national security web site messages may be found at http://www.INTELmessages.org/.
http://www.sftt.org/cgi-bin/csNews/csNews.cgi?database=DefenseWatch.db&command=viewone&op=t&id=517&rnd=771.2070856641416
Ellie
Guest Column: War with North Korea Is Possible
By Robert W. Koontz
According to nuclear weapons experts, North Korea now has the capability to produce somewhere between five and ten nuclear weapons each year – using weapons-grade plutonium the North Koreans indigenously produce.
North Korea has been found to have exported at least two tons of nuclear materials to Libya. While this nuclear material was not in a form that could be used immediately to make nuclear weapons, and would require much and very sophisticated processing, the fact remains that North Korea has been found to have exported nuclear materials to a Middle East country.
North Korea has threatened to export nuclear weapons. While North Korea is known for its hyperbolic rhetoric, this threat cannot be ignored in light of the fact that North Korea has been found to have already exported nuclear materials to Libya.
North Korea already exports long-range ballistic missile and WMD technology to Iran, Syria and other Middle Eastern states, including Yemen. These long-range ballistic missiles have provided a way for Iran to deliver weapons of mass destruction against Israel and against U.S. and allied forces in the Persian Gulf and Middle East areas, including Iraq and Kuwait. These WMD-capable missiles can also reach Saudi Arabia.
About six weeks ago, in mid-April, Vice President Dick Cheney essentially warned the North Koreans that time was running out for them to act to stop their nuclear weapons program. The exact words that Cheney used were, “Time is not on our side.”
North Korea recently indicated that the United States flew almost 200 intelligence missions over its country during the month of May. This may not be a precisely accurate number, but the fact remains that it is possible that the United States is gathering intelligence at a very stepped-up rate over North Korea. North Korea has recently indicated that it has a strong belief that United States is preparing to attack.
There appears to have been significant diplomatic activity in the last few months that has centered around what might be an almost last-ditch attempt to bring the North Korean situation to a peaceful conclusion. Also, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-Il, visited with leaders in China recently.
Historically, China has been North Korea’s patron, and North Korea has historically been viewed as a surrogate for the PRC. But, of late this kind of thinking has not been invoked. China provides North Korea with a very large amount of food and energy resources and could strongly influence or even force North Korea into giving up its nuclear weapons program if China would decide to do so. That is conventional thinking, at least.
Based on this and other sensitive information, my conclusion is that war with North Korea could occur by the end of the summer or in that time period. Many of the U.S. forces needed for this are already in place, and more are being dispatched in surge.
I also conclude that such a war would quickly escalate to a nuclear conflict and also would see the use of chemical and bacteriological agents after we first use conventional weapons to attack North Korea’s nuclear sites.
Seoul could be lost, as could Tokyo. But as many as 100 U.S. nuclear weapons might be used to keep this from happening.
To forestall such a war, the United States and its allies must pressure China to stop this war from happening. China can rein in North Korea with a single phone call.
If war comes, it is a war that Jiang Zemin and the central communist party figures of China want and have engineered – to weaken the United States and put China in a better position to take back Taiwan. Jiang Zemin controls the army even though he is no longer president of China.
Bob Koontz is a Ph.D. experimental nuclear physicist and former member of U.S. intelligence. His national security web site messages may be found at http://www.INTELmessages.org/.
http://www.sftt.org/cgi-bin/csNews/csNews.cgi?database=DefenseWatch.db&command=viewone&op=t&id=517&rnd=771.2070856641416
Ellie