thedrifter
02-21-04, 06:24 AM
02-19-2004
From the Editor:
Quemoy and Matsu, Deja Vu
By Ed Offley
All but lost in the 24/7 news cycle from Iraq and Afghanistan, a former hot spot that has been dormant for decades is showing signs of heating up again.
China and Taiwan are verbally jousting over a planned March 20 referendum in Taiwan asking whether they want to open new talks with China and whether the island should acquire more advanced anti-missile defenses. Many observers say the vote may set a precedent for a future referendum on independence itself.
Beijing officials in response have repeatedly warned Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian that they would respond to any attempt at independence with military force.
So what’s the sweat? The two Chinas have been gnashing teeth at one another since Mao Tse-tung’s communist revolution forced the Nationalists to flee mainland China 55 year ago. And the teeth-clenching rhetoric has sputtered along nonstop over the past decade even as mainland China and Taiwan have unofficially strengthened business and cultural ties. American officials, from President Bush to the State Department to the Pentagon, have also weighed in, encouraging both sides to keep cool.
Normally, I’d relegate this news item to the bottom of my in-tray along with the Croatian defense budget and the WMD threat posed by Mauritania. But quietly, with scant recognition from the U.S. mainstream news media, two significant developments have occurred that make a sudden war in the Taiwan Strait distinctly possible.
Should that stark scenario come to pass, American blood will flow.
The first development is China’s relentless military modernization program over the past decade and a force buildup in its two provinces facing Taiwan across the 83-mile-wide strait.
In recent years, Beijing has deployed nearly 500 medium-range ballistic missiles targeted on Taiwan, largely in Fujian Province. Of equal concern, the People’s Liberation Army and its naval arm have embarked on the creation of an amphibious assault capability involving both ship construction and development of modern amphibious tanks.
With little fanfare, Pentagon officials over the past year, have helped Taiwan strengthen its passive defenses. Steps have included hardening bunkers, reinforcing air bases and practicing fast runway repair. Elsewhere, efforts have included improving the “interoperability” of Taiwan air force and army units to increase their combat effectiveness.
Still, one Pentagon official earlier this month warned that Taiwan is slipping behind mainland China in overall military capability. “With this rapid a pace of buildup and with this buildup directed so forcefully and frontally against Taiwan, it's clearly an attempt to change the [military] dynamic,” Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Richard Lawless told a Washington roundtable meeting.
Other Pentagon officials have reportedly warned their counterparts in Taiwan that at its current rate of modernization, mainland China will attain the capability to invade and defeat Taiwan by 2006.
The second worrisome development is, of course, the unrelenting demands on U.S. military units in Iraq and Afghanistan. The negative impact this is having on the credibility of a U.S. pledge to defend Taiwan is obvious.
As just one example, three of the brigades that will serve in Iraq in 2004 are normally assigned to the U.S. Pacific Command as reinforcements for forward-deployed U.S. military units in South Korea and Japan: the 3rd “Stryker” Brigade of the 2nd Infantry Division from Fort Lewis, Wash., the 2nd Brigade, 25th Infantry Division from Schofield Barracks, Hawaii, and the 81st Armor Brigade, Washington Army National Guard. Three Marine Corps battalions on Okinawa – another forward-based deterrent – are likewise on their way to Iraq.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon has quietly shipped a covey of six B-52H bombers to Guam to offset losses in air power due to the demands of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Given the United States’ tacit pledge to defend Taiwan from a mainland attack, American servicemen and women from the U.S. west coast to Okinawa and Osan well know that this is a potential nightmare that would affect them directly and immediately.
Perhaps this is all verbal shadowboxing. Perhaps Beijing officials will ignore the outcome of the Taiwanese referendum. Maybe diplomacy will prevail.
Don’t count on it.
China analyst Yossef Bodansky, a Senior Editor of Global Information System, warned this week that former Chinese President Jiang Zemin – who continues to serve as Chairman of the Chinese Military Commission – recently toured the PLA regional headquarters and major combat units in Guangzhou Province responsible for invading and conquering southern Taiwan. Citing senior-level Chinese government sources, Bodansky writes in Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily:
“Jiang spent a lot of time at the Shantou HQ. He received detailed briefing from the local senior commanders. He also watched a sand table exercise simulating the invasion of southern Taiwan as well as ensuing combat actions in response for ‘foreign forces’ interference’: a euphemism for confronting the US.”
“Jiang also inspected the ability of the local forces to conduct a surprise total mobilization. It was such a realistic exercise, that many officers and veteran NCOs were convinced war against Taiwan was imminent. This might be true for in his discussions with the region’s senior officers, Jiang was most interested to know if they could be ready to go to war soon after March 20, 2004, in case Beijing decided to react to the Taiwanese referendum.”
“According to PRC high-level defense officials, Jiang gave the officers ‘important instructions on military preparations against Taiwan.’ He demanded that ‘officers and men in the whole army get well-prepared’ for the forthcoming challenges.”
“ ‘Officers and men should always keep high vigilance in accordance with the policy decisions made by the Party Central [Committee] as well as the CMC, at the same time, they should get ready to be mobilized once they are recalled, always be ready to fight once they are mobilized, be capable of winning a battle, and always get ready for smashing the separatist plot drawn up by the Taiwan independence elements and foreign forces’ interference,’ the officials quoted Jiang as telling the senior officers …. ”
That sounds more ominous and straightforward than a diplomatic demarche. It sounds like China is telling its military to get ready for war. Is the Pentagon warning its troops in the Asia-Pacific theater that this nightmare may happen next month?
Ed Offley is Editor of DefenseWatch. He can be reached at dweditor@yahoo.com. Please send Feedback responses to dwfeedback@yahoo.com. © 2004 Ed Offley.
http://www.sftt.org/cgi-bin/csNews/csNews.cgi?database=FTE.db&command=viewone&op=t&id=25&rnd=34.62659917126049
Sempers,
Roger
:marine:
From the Editor:
Quemoy and Matsu, Deja Vu
By Ed Offley
All but lost in the 24/7 news cycle from Iraq and Afghanistan, a former hot spot that has been dormant for decades is showing signs of heating up again.
China and Taiwan are verbally jousting over a planned March 20 referendum in Taiwan asking whether they want to open new talks with China and whether the island should acquire more advanced anti-missile defenses. Many observers say the vote may set a precedent for a future referendum on independence itself.
Beijing officials in response have repeatedly warned Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian that they would respond to any attempt at independence with military force.
So what’s the sweat? The two Chinas have been gnashing teeth at one another since Mao Tse-tung’s communist revolution forced the Nationalists to flee mainland China 55 year ago. And the teeth-clenching rhetoric has sputtered along nonstop over the past decade even as mainland China and Taiwan have unofficially strengthened business and cultural ties. American officials, from President Bush to the State Department to the Pentagon, have also weighed in, encouraging both sides to keep cool.
Normally, I’d relegate this news item to the bottom of my in-tray along with the Croatian defense budget and the WMD threat posed by Mauritania. But quietly, with scant recognition from the U.S. mainstream news media, two significant developments have occurred that make a sudden war in the Taiwan Strait distinctly possible.
Should that stark scenario come to pass, American blood will flow.
The first development is China’s relentless military modernization program over the past decade and a force buildup in its two provinces facing Taiwan across the 83-mile-wide strait.
In recent years, Beijing has deployed nearly 500 medium-range ballistic missiles targeted on Taiwan, largely in Fujian Province. Of equal concern, the People’s Liberation Army and its naval arm have embarked on the creation of an amphibious assault capability involving both ship construction and development of modern amphibious tanks.
With little fanfare, Pentagon officials over the past year, have helped Taiwan strengthen its passive defenses. Steps have included hardening bunkers, reinforcing air bases and practicing fast runway repair. Elsewhere, efforts have included improving the “interoperability” of Taiwan air force and army units to increase their combat effectiveness.
Still, one Pentagon official earlier this month warned that Taiwan is slipping behind mainland China in overall military capability. “With this rapid a pace of buildup and with this buildup directed so forcefully and frontally against Taiwan, it's clearly an attempt to change the [military] dynamic,” Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Richard Lawless told a Washington roundtable meeting.
Other Pentagon officials have reportedly warned their counterparts in Taiwan that at its current rate of modernization, mainland China will attain the capability to invade and defeat Taiwan by 2006.
The second worrisome development is, of course, the unrelenting demands on U.S. military units in Iraq and Afghanistan. The negative impact this is having on the credibility of a U.S. pledge to defend Taiwan is obvious.
As just one example, three of the brigades that will serve in Iraq in 2004 are normally assigned to the U.S. Pacific Command as reinforcements for forward-deployed U.S. military units in South Korea and Japan: the 3rd “Stryker” Brigade of the 2nd Infantry Division from Fort Lewis, Wash., the 2nd Brigade, 25th Infantry Division from Schofield Barracks, Hawaii, and the 81st Armor Brigade, Washington Army National Guard. Three Marine Corps battalions on Okinawa – another forward-based deterrent – are likewise on their way to Iraq.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon has quietly shipped a covey of six B-52H bombers to Guam to offset losses in air power due to the demands of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Given the United States’ tacit pledge to defend Taiwan from a mainland attack, American servicemen and women from the U.S. west coast to Okinawa and Osan well know that this is a potential nightmare that would affect them directly and immediately.
Perhaps this is all verbal shadowboxing. Perhaps Beijing officials will ignore the outcome of the Taiwanese referendum. Maybe diplomacy will prevail.
Don’t count on it.
China analyst Yossef Bodansky, a Senior Editor of Global Information System, warned this week that former Chinese President Jiang Zemin – who continues to serve as Chairman of the Chinese Military Commission – recently toured the PLA regional headquarters and major combat units in Guangzhou Province responsible for invading and conquering southern Taiwan. Citing senior-level Chinese government sources, Bodansky writes in Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily:
“Jiang spent a lot of time at the Shantou HQ. He received detailed briefing from the local senior commanders. He also watched a sand table exercise simulating the invasion of southern Taiwan as well as ensuing combat actions in response for ‘foreign forces’ interference’: a euphemism for confronting the US.”
“Jiang also inspected the ability of the local forces to conduct a surprise total mobilization. It was such a realistic exercise, that many officers and veteran NCOs were convinced war against Taiwan was imminent. This might be true for in his discussions with the region’s senior officers, Jiang was most interested to know if they could be ready to go to war soon after March 20, 2004, in case Beijing decided to react to the Taiwanese referendum.”
“According to PRC high-level defense officials, Jiang gave the officers ‘important instructions on military preparations against Taiwan.’ He demanded that ‘officers and men in the whole army get well-prepared’ for the forthcoming challenges.”
“ ‘Officers and men should always keep high vigilance in accordance with the policy decisions made by the Party Central [Committee] as well as the CMC, at the same time, they should get ready to be mobilized once they are recalled, always be ready to fight once they are mobilized, be capable of winning a battle, and always get ready for smashing the separatist plot drawn up by the Taiwan independence elements and foreign forces’ interference,’ the officials quoted Jiang as telling the senior officers …. ”
That sounds more ominous and straightforward than a diplomatic demarche. It sounds like China is telling its military to get ready for war. Is the Pentagon warning its troops in the Asia-Pacific theater that this nightmare may happen next month?
Ed Offley is Editor of DefenseWatch. He can be reached at dweditor@yahoo.com. Please send Feedback responses to dwfeedback@yahoo.com. © 2004 Ed Offley.
http://www.sftt.org/cgi-bin/csNews/csNews.cgi?database=FTE.db&command=viewone&op=t&id=25&rnd=34.62659917126049
Sempers,
Roger
:marine: